TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065188
Played Sep 4Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
161410121311911711
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:34 and never touched — 70.1% is still 70.1%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
70.1%
70.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 114 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 70.1%
114 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 12–33 Jaromir Cernik Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 12 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:34What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-33 in 45
Cernik
Correct
gap of 21 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1059 vs Cernik 1087
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 20% vs Cernik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 10% vs Cernik 40%
Cernik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -3 · Cernik -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (20%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 3.00 / Cernik 1.36
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Cernik)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065188
Strnad3.00
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog28% won 23 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Cernik1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite60% won 60 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad2wins
AwayCernik8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad28.6%2 of 7
AwayCernik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad7Cernik3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S2Strnad4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S3Strnad0Cernik10n = 10Cernik took 10 of 10
S4Strnad2Cernik6n = 8Cernik took 6 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadCernikS − CBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match32.240.2−8.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 368 vs 370 / 81242.1%45.6%155 / 368 vs 370 / 812Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikStrnad 3.00/Cernik 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.3%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 09:03J. Strnad—113891J. Cernik—81111113
LSep 1 · 08:00J. Strnad—8380J. Cernik—1111113
WAug 28 · 12:00J. Strnad—11112113J. Cernik—961171
LJul 22 · 10:30J. Strnad—911631J. Cernik—11611113
LJun 30 · 13:00J. Strnad—112991J. Cernik—81111113
LJun 30 · 12:30J. Strnad—1461041J. Cernik—121112113
LJun 9 · 12:00J. Strnad—113571J. Cernik—81111113
LMay 7 · 10:30J. Strnad—12490J. Cernik—1411113
WApr 16 · 07:30J. Strnad—11119163J. Cernik—6911141
LDec 28 · 13:30J. Strnad—111161072J. Cernik—991112113
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380LSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891WSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
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