TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063661
Played Sep 4Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3119111315––––
Miroslav Vaclavik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Miroslav Vaclavik below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 13-15
Point 62 set 3, 13-15 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 10–3 Miroslav Vaclavik Miroslav Vaclavik has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-3 in 13
Strnad
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1066 vs Vaclavik 1244
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 20% vs Vaclavik 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 10% vs Vaclavik 50%
Vaclavik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -2 · Vaclavik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vaclavik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.83 / Vaclavik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vaclavik)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063661
Strnad1.83
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Vaclavik1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad8wins
AwayVaclavik2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad87.5%7 of 8
AwayVaclavikn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad8Vaclavik2n = 10Strnad took 8 of 10
S2Strnad6Vaclavik4n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S3Strnad9Vaclavik1n = 10Strnad took 9 of 10
S4Strnad4Vaclavik2n = 6Strnad took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadVaclavikS − VBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.632.2+5.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadVaclavikBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 367 vs 93 / 17642.2%52.8%155 / 367 vs 93 / 176Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikStrnad 1.83/Vaclavik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 19 · 11:30J. Strnad—13911113M. Vaclavik—1111991
WAug 6 · 18:30J. Strnad—12127113M. Vaclavik—10101171
WJul 10 · 02:30J. Strnad—1111113M. Vaclavik—5970
WJul 6 · 22:00J. Strnad—101112113M. Vaclavik—1261051
WJul 4 · 11:30J. Strnad—11511113M. Vaclavik—911881
LJul 1 · 23:00J. Strnad—671171M. Vaclavik—11119113
WMay 29 · 13:08J. Strnad—1211113M. Vaclavik—10630
LMay 29 · 11:00J. Strnad—11811662M. Vaclavik—911611113
WMay 19 · 13:00J. Strnad—1111133M. Vaclavik—96110
WMay 19 · 12:30J. Strnad—1111113M. Vaclavik—7750
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380LSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 2 · 12:59J. Grohsgott2.1051111143M. Vaclavik1.671172121LSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113LSep 2 · 11:30J. Grohsgott2.3811137113M. Vaclavik1.537111171LSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113WAug 31 · 03:30M. Vaclavik1.5011119113J. Grohsgott2.45961131WAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113
Upcoming Matches
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M. Vaclavik
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