TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063663
Played Sep 3Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181151311––––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 59 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 58.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 9–5 Jaromir Cernik Jaromir Cernik has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:10What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Vaclavik
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1259 vs Cernik 1110
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 20% vs Cernik 60%
Cernik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 50% vs Cernik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik -4 · Cernik -1
Vaclavik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.40 / Cernik 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Vaclavik)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063663
Vaclavik1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 33 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Cernik2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 46 of 160
Down 0–1, comes back17% 16 of 96
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVaclavik7wins
AwayCernik3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVaclavik leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik100%6 of 6
AwayCernik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik6Cernik4n = 10Vaclavik took 6 of 10
S2Vaclavik5Cernik5n = 10split evenly
S3Vaclavik8Cernik2n = 10Vaclavik took 8 of 10
S4Vaclavik4Cernik2n = 6Vaclavik took 4 of 6
S5Vaclavik3Cernik2n = 5Vaclavik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVaclavikCernikV − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.737.5+4.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 175 vs 370 / 81053.1%45.7%93 / 175 vs 370 / 810Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.736.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.40/Cernik 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.1%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik—1111133J. Cernik—85110
WJul 24 · 02:00M. Vaclavik—1311113J. Cernik—11690
WJun 12 · 24:30M. Vaclavik—1111113J. Cernik—7870
LMay 23 · 13:30M. Vaclavik—413111682J. Cernik—1115814113
WMay 23 · 10:00M. Vaclavik—1113311113J. Cernik—91511652
WMay 19 · 23:00M. Vaclavik—128118113J. Cernik—101151122
WApr 12 · 22:30M. Vaclavik—1131811113J. Cernik—131116652
WMar 16 · 01:30M. Vaclavik—1112113J. Cernik—51090
LJan 28 · 02:00M. Vaclavik—61191192J. Cernik—113119113
LNov 9 · 12:30M. Vaclavik—841161J. Cernik—11116113
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113LSep 2 · 12:59J. Grohsgott2.1051111143M. Vaclavik1.671172121LSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113LSep 2 · 11:30J. Grohsgott2.3811137113M. Vaclavik1.537111171LSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113WAug 31 · 03:30M. Vaclavik1.5011119113J. Grohsgott2.45961131WAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891WSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
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