TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042318
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Potensky
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911511119411––
Miroslav Vaclavik
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Potensky above · Miroslav Vaclavik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 71 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jan Potensky 6–3 Miroslav Vaclavik Miroslav Vaclavik has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:45What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vaclavik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Potensky
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potensky 1214 vs Vaclavik 1336
Vaclavik
Correct
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potensky 80% vs Vaclavik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potensky 70% vs Vaclavik 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Potensky +2 · Vaclavik +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vaclavik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotensky 2.00 / Vaclavik 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Vaclavik)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042318
Potensky2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 35
Vaclavik1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite67% won 29 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePotensky6wins
AwayVaclavik3wins
4 of 9 to a deciderPotensky leads 6–3, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotensky100%3 of 3
AwayVaclavik50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potensky3Vaclavik6n = 9Vaclavik took 6 of 9
S2Potensky6Vaclavik3n = 9Potensky took 6 of 9
S3Potensky5Vaclavik4n = 9Potensky took 5 of 9
S4Potensky3Vaclavik5n = 8Vaclavik took 5 of 8
S5Potensky4Vaclavik0n = 4Potensky took 4 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricPotenskyVaclavikP − VBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match38.439.9−1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotenskyVaclavikBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 484 vs 91 / 16947.7%53.9%231 / 484 vs 91 / 169Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikPotensky 2.00/Vaclavik 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vaclavik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky—951141M. Vaclavik—11119113
WJul 28 · 22:30J. Potensky—147115143M. Vaclavik—1211711122
LJul 24 · 03:28J. Potensky—551161M. Vaclavik—11119113
LJul 23 · 23:00J. Potensky—411651M. Vaclavik—11611113
WJun 17 · 02:00J. Potensky—411711113M. Vaclavik—11911842
WJun 2 · 23:00J. Potensky—11114113M. Vaclavik—671181
WApr 12 · 23:30J. Potensky—1111113M. Vaclavik—7550
WMar 15 · 23:00J. Potensky—711128113M. Vaclavik—119101132
WFeb 20 · 03:00J. Potensky—1111611113M. Vaclavik—13911952
J. Potensky10
LAug 31 · 03:00J. Potensky1.6011391192A. Hejduk2.20411119113WAug 31 · 01:30D. Mutl1.91811771J. Potensky1.8011511113WAug 31 · 24:00J. Potensky1.53111143163A. Hejduk2.38751111142LAug 30 · 23:00J. Grohsgott1.83111110113J. Potensky1.83951261WAug 27 · 09:30J. Potensky1.8371111113J. Grohsgott1.83117331WAug 27 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.678780J. Potensky2.101111113WAug 27 · 07:00V. Stach1.91811781J. Potensky1.8011511113WAug 27 · 06:30J. Potensky1.5751211113A. Hejduk2.251110671LAug 24 · 09:28J. Svec1.8311514113J. Potensky1.834111251LAug 24 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.6771211113J. Potensky2.101110451
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 2 · 12:59J. Grohsgott2.1051111143M. Vaclavik1.671172121LSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113LSep 2 · 11:30J. Grohsgott2.3811137113M. Vaclavik1.537111171LSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113WAug 31 · 03:30M. Vaclavik1.5011119113J. Grohsgott2.45961131
Upcoming Matches
J. Potensky
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M. Vaclavik
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