TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018128
Played Aug 27Finished
Jan Potensky
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
5111210116117––
Alexander Hejduk
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:40 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJan Potensky to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Potensky above · Alexander Hejduk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Jan Potensky at 54.5%
73 points played in total.
H2H Jan Potensky 31–22 Alexander Hejduk Alexander Hejduk has won 22 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:40What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Potensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-22 in 53
Potensky
Correct
gap of 9 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Potensky 1218 vs Hejduk 1092
Potensky
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Potensky 40% vs Hejduk 20%
Potensky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Potensky 20% vs Hejduk 50%
Hejduk
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Potensky -2 · Hejduk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Potensky) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hejduk form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPotensky 1.57 / Hejduk 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Potensky)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018128
Potensky1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 62 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Hejduk2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 57 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back29% 23 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePotensky9wins
AwayHejduk1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPotensky leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePotensky85.7%6 of 7
AwayHejduk0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Potensky7Hejduk3n = 10Potensky took 7 of 10
S2Potensky8Hejduk2n = 10Potensky took 8 of 10
S3Potensky7Hejduk3n = 10Potensky took 7 of 10
S4Potensky6Hejduk1n = 7Potensky took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPotenskyHejdukP − HBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.231.6+8.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPotenskyHejdukBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 485 vs 192 / 41847.8%45.9%232 / 485 vs 192 / 418Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.236.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotenskyPotensky 1.57/Hejduk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Potensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Potensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 06:30J. Potensky—51211113A. Hejduk—1110671
WJul 29 · 24:00J. Potensky—31111113A. Hejduk—117931
WJul 26 · 22:00J. Potensky—1211163A. Hejduk—104140
WJul 24 · 01:30J. Potensky—101111113A. Hejduk—127391
WJul 17 · 01:30J. Potensky—111110113A. Hejduk—261261
WJul 13 · 01:00J. Potensky—1111113A. Hejduk—6640
WJun 16 · 22:30J. Potensky—11911113A. Hejduk—711961
WJun 10 · 03:30J. Potensky—118511113A. Hejduk—61111792
LJun 10 · 02:00J. Potensky—1111102132A. Hejduk—851211153
WJun 2 · 22:00J. Potensky—1112113A. Hejduk—81050
J. Potensky10
LAug 31 · 03:00J. Potensky1.6011391192A. Hejduk2.20411119113LAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113WAug 31 · 01:30D. Mutl1.91811771J. Potensky1.8011511113WAug 31 · 24:00J. Potensky1.53111143163A. Hejduk2.38751111142LAug 30 · 23:00J. Grohsgott1.83111110113J. Potensky1.83951261WAug 27 · 09:30J. Potensky1.8371111113J. Grohsgott1.83117331WAug 27 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.678780J. Potensky2.101111113WAug 27 · 07:00V. Stach1.91811781J. Potensky1.8011511113LAug 24 · 09:28J. Svec1.8311514113J. Potensky1.834111251LAug 24 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.6771211113J. Potensky2.101110451
A. Hejduk10
LSep 7 · 08:30M. Vrabec1.61111111113A. Hejduk2.20841371LSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030LSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113LSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880WSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830WSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113WAug 31 · 03:00J. Potensky1.6011391192A. Hejduk2.20411119113LAug 31 · 24:00J. Potensky1.53111143163A. Hejduk2.38751111142
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