TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042232
Played Aug 31Finished
David Mutl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115711711––
Jan Potensky
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Potensky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Jan Potensky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Jan Potensky at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 4–7 Jan Potensky David Mutl has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:27What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Potensky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Potensky
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1186 vs Potensky 1211
Potensky
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 40% vs Potensky 80%
Potensky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 60% vs Potensky 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -2 · Potensky +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Potensky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Potensky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 1.91 / Potensky 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Potensky)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042232
Mutl1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 29 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Potensky1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 60 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it90% 45 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMutl4wins
AwayPotensky6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderPotensky leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMutl66.7%4 of 6
AwayPotensky100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl6Potensky4n = 10Mutl took 6 of 10
S2Mutl4Potensky6n = 10Potensky took 6 of 10
S3Mutl3Potensky7n = 10Potensky took 7 of 10
S4Mutl4Potensky3n = 7Mutl took 4 of 7
S5Mutl2Potensky3n = 5Potensky took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMutlPotenskyM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.938.7−3.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlPotenskyBasisWin rate · lifetime55 / 108 vs 230 / 48250.9%47.7%55 / 108 vs 230 / 482Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.135.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PotenskyMutl 1.91/Potensky 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Potensky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Potensky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 02:00D. Mutl—91151182J. Potensky—118116113
LJul 12 · 22:30D. Mutl—11118552J. Potensky—881111113
WJul 8 · 01:00D. Mutl—1112113J. Potensky—91060
WJul 1 · 03:00D. Mutl—111011113J. Potensky—412671
LJul 1 · 24:30D. Mutl—34111112J. Potensky—111177113
WJun 16 · 08:00D. Mutl—111125113J. Potensky—56111142
LJun 13 · 02:59D. Mutl—116461J. Potensky—61111113
LJun 13 · 24:30D. Mutl—8690J. Potensky—1111113
LJun 10 · 24:30D. Mutl—8760J. Potensky—1111113
WJun 3 · 24:30D. Mutl—115613123J. Potensky—5111111102
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113
J. Potensky10
LAug 31 · 03:00J. Potensky1.6011391192A. Hejduk2.20411119113LAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113WAug 31 · 24:00J. Potensky1.53111143163A. Hejduk2.38751111142LAug 30 · 23:00J. Grohsgott1.83111110113J. Potensky1.83951261WAug 27 · 09:30J. Potensky1.8371111113J. Grohsgott1.83117331WAug 27 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.678780J. Potensky2.101111113WAug 27 · 07:00V. Stach1.91811781J. Potensky1.8011511113WAug 27 · 06:30J. Potensky1.5751211113A. Hejduk2.251110671LAug 24 · 09:28J. Svec1.8311514113J. Potensky1.834111251LAug 24 · 08:00J. Grohsgott1.6771211113J. Potensky2.101110451
Upcoming Matches
D. Mutl
J. Potensky
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