TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058942
Played Sep 2Finished
Jiri Grohsgott
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171311711117––
Miroslav Vaclavik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Miroslav Vaclavik below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 56.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 9–11 Miroslav Vaclavik Jiri Grohsgott has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vaclavik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Vaclavik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1238 vs Vaclavik 1297
Vaclavik
Wrong
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 80% vs Vaclavik 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 70% vs Vaclavik 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott +4 · Vaclavik -1
Grohsgott
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclavik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 2.38 / Vaclavik 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Vaclavik)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058942
Grohsgott2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 139 of 365
Down 0–1, comes back22% 41 of 191
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 113
Vaclavik1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 33 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott4wins
AwayVaclavik6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVaclavik leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott50%2 of 4
AwayVaclavik66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott4Vaclavik6n = 10Vaclavik took 6 of 10
S2Grohsgott3Vaclavik7n = 10Vaclavik took 7 of 10
S3Grohsgott5Vaclavik5n = 10split evenly
S4Grohsgott3Vaclavik3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottVaclavikG − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.136.8−1.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottVaclavikBasisWin rate · lifetime750 / 1542 vs 92 / 17248.6%53.5%750 / 1542 vs 92 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikGrohsgott 2.38/Vaclavik 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 28 · 23:30J. Grohsgott—11115113M. Vaclavik—851161
LJul 23 · 22:00J. Grohsgott—115781M. Vaclavik—91111113
LJul 19 · 16:58J. Grohsgott—41090M. Vaclavik—1112113
LJul 19 · 16:30J. Grohsgott—53100M. Vaclavik—1111123
WMay 28 · 23:00J. Grohsgott—81611113M. Vaclavik—1114831
WApr 3 · 02:00J. Grohsgott—1111113M. Vaclavik—2740
LMar 28 · 21:30J. Grohsgott—115111082M. Vaclavik—811512113
LMar 16 · 24:00J. Grohsgott—8813101M. Vaclavik—111111123
WFeb 20 · 24:00J. Grohsgott—1061113113M. Vaclavik—121181192
LJan 28 · 01:00J. Grohsgott—69120M. Vaclavik—1111143
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172WSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110WSep 5 · 14:30M. Syroha1.91911111092J. Grohsgott1.80113912113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113LSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:30J. Grohsgott1.809119111M. Syroha1.9111811133WSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 2 · 12:59J. Grohsgott2.1051111143M. Vaclavik1.671172121LSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113LSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113WAug 31 · 03:30M. Vaclavik1.5011119113J. Grohsgott2.45961131WAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113
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M. Vaclavik
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