TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052618
Played Sep 1Finished
Cesta Havrda
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911511411––––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 51 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 59.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 16–19 Jaromir Cernik Cesta Havrda has won 16 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-19 in 35
Cernik
Correct
gap of 3 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1037 vs Cernik 1134
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 80% vs Cernik 60%
Havrda
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 50% vs Cernik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda +1 · Cernik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 2.50 / Cernik 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Cernik)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052618
Havrda2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog20% won 11 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Cernik1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 60 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda3wins
AwayCernik7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda50%2 of 4
AwayCernik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Havrda2Cernik8n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S3Havrda6Cernik4n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S4Havrda3Cernik5n = 8Cernik took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaCernikH − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.738.0−3.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 252 vs 370 / 80841.7%45.8%105 / 252 vs 370 / 808Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikHavrda 2.50/Cernik 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda—9540J. Cernik—1111113
LJul 22 · 12:00C. Havrda—118671J. Cernik—61111113
WJun 30 · 11:30C. Havrda—11912133J. Cernik—81110111
LJun 9 · 11:00C. Havrda—461351J. Cernik—111111113
WMay 18 · 12:30C. Havrda—11812113J. Cernik—5111041
LApr 7 · 10:30C. Havrda—9811131J. Cernik—11111153
LMar 31 · 11:00C. Havrda—31160J. Cernik—1113113
LMar 24 · 13:58C. Havrda—11116892J. Cernik—771111113
LMar 24 · 13:00C. Havrda—1181281J. Cernik—131110113
WMar 4 · 13:00C. Havrda—41111113J. Cernik—115941
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591WAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891WSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
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