TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13001852
Played Aug 25Finished
Cesta Havrda
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10129111191151113
Milan Smesny
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeCesta Havrda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingCesta Havrda above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 102 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Cesta Havrda at 54.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Cesta Havrda 21–13 Milan Smesny Milan Smesny has won 13 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Havrda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-13 in 34
Havrda
Wrong
gap of 8 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havrda 1015 vs Smesny 1174
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havrda 20% vs Smesny 60%
Smesny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havrda 30% vs Smesny 60%
Smesny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havrda -2 · Smesny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Havrda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavrda 1.80 / Smesny 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Havrda)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13001852
Havrda1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 26 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Smesny1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 16 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back11% 3 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHavrda5wins
AwaySmesny5wins
9 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 9 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavrda50%2 of 4
AwaySmesny50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havrda4Smesny6n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S2Havrda4Smesny6n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S3Havrda7Smesny3n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S4Havrda6Smesny4n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S5Havrda4Smesny5n = 9Smesny took 5 of 9
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHavrdaSmesnyH − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match46.247.1−0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavrdaSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 256 vs 191 / 37842.6%50.5%109 / 256 vs 191 / 378Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaHavrda 1.80/Smesny 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 10:30C. Havrda—71311982M. Smesny—1111611113
WJul 21 · 09:30C. Havrda—1441111133M. Smesny—161187112
LJul 21 · 07:30C. Havrda—111112332M. Smesny—5131011113
WJun 24 · 08:30C. Havrda—11116113M. Smesny—481191
WJun 23 · 08:30C. Havrda—158117133M. Smesny—1311811112
LJun 16 · 13:04C. Havrda—15481152M. Smesny—1311114113
LJun 16 · 12:30C. Havrda—69111182M. Smesny—111176113
WJun 10 · 06:30C. Havrda—1011811113M. Smesny—12911722
LJun 9 · 12:30C. Havrda—48121172M. Smesny—1111107113
WMay 18 · 10:00C. Havrda—811116113M. Smesny—11681192
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591WAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123
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