TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13001844
Played Aug 25Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911121012101416411
Cesta Havrda
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 14-16
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 109 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 54.0%
109 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 14–28 Cesta Havrda Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 14 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Havrda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-28 in 42
Havrda
Correct
gap of 14 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1174 vs Havrda 1015
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 159 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 80% vs Havrda 20%
Strnad
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 80% vs Havrda 30%
Strnad
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +1 · Havrda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Havrda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.50 / Havrda 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 66%
Edge (Havrda)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13001844
Strnad2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 18 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back15% 7 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Havrda1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 26 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad2wins
AwayHavrda8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnadn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayHavrda77.8%7 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad1Havrda9n = 10Havrda took 9 of 10
S2Strnad5Havrda5n = 10split evenly
S3Strnad3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S4Strnad4Havrda4n = 8split evenly
S5Strnad1Havrda2n = 3Havrda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadHavrdaS − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match35.043.2−8.2per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 377 vs 109 / 25641.6%42.6%157 / 377 vs 109 / 256Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaStrnad 2.50/Havrda 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.5%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad—31111113C. Havrda—118591
LAug 12 · 07:00J. Strnad—11540C. Havrda—1311113
LJul 22 · 13:02J. Strnad—7116111C. Havrda—11911133
WJul 22 · 11:30J. Strnad—5111111113C. Havrda—11813772
LJul 21 · 06:00J. Strnad—41132362C. Havrda—1181121113
LJun 30 · 10:00J. Strnad—681171C. Havrda—11118113
LJun 10 · 08:00J. Strnad—811971C. Havrda—11911113
LJun 9 · 13:05J. Strnad—8650C. Havrda—1111113
LJun 9 · 10:00J. Strnad—11771662C. Havrda—8111114113
LMay 11 · 12:30J. Strnad—741181C. Havrda—11118113
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591WAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
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