TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13001848
Played Aug 25Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711411711––––
Cesta Havrda
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 15–13 Cesta Havrda Cesta Havrda has won 13 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-13 in 28
Novotny
Wrong
gap of 2 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1112 vs Havrda 1042
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 20% vs Havrda 40%
Havrda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 30% vs Havrda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -2 · Havrda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.50 / Havrda 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Novotny)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13001848
Novotny1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 39 of 61
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it81% 29 of 36
Havrda2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog20% won 11 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny7wins
AwayHavrda3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny100%3 of 3
AwayHavrda42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S2Novotny4Havrda6n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Novotny6Havrda4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S4Novotny6Havrda1n = 7Novotny took 6 of 7
S5Novotny3Havrda0n = 3Novotny took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyHavrdaN − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.634.5+2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 339 vs 111 / 25949.6%42.9%168 / 339 vs 111 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.50/Havrda 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny—7470C. Havrda—1111113
WJun 30 · 13:28L. Novotny—13711113C. Havrda—1111431
WJun 30 · 12:00L. Novotny—711511113C. Havrda—11811472
WJun 23 · 09:30L. Novotny—11711113C. Havrda—811931
WJun 23 · 06:30L. Novotny—961111113C. Havrda—11116652
WJun 2 · 08:59L. Novotny—611811113C. Havrda—11511792
WJun 2 · 06:30L. Novotny—61112113C. Havrda—1181011
LMay 11 · 11:30L. Novotny—9460C. Havrda—1111113
LApr 20 · 11:00L. Novotny—581561C. Havrda—111113113
WApr 2 · 06:00L. Novotny—1111113C. Havrda—7850
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591WAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
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