TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12481138
Played Aug 24Finished
Vladimir Kubat
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5118111012––––
Cesta Havrda
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:51 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeCesta Havrda to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Kubat above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 57 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Cesta Havrda at 56.6%
57 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Kubat 16–32 Cesta Havrda Vladimir Kubat has won 16 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:51What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Havrda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-32 in 48
Havrda
Correct
gap of 16 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1059 vs Havrda 1033
Kubat
Wrong
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 40% vs Havrda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 30% vs Havrda 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -1 · Havrda -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Havrda) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.63 / Havrda 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Havrda)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12481138
Kubat2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 22 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Havrda1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 25 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubat1wins
AwayHavrda9wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat20%1 of 5
AwayHavrda100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat5Havrda5n = 10split evenly
S2Kubat3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S3Kubat1Havrda9n = 10Havrda took 9 of 10
S4Kubat4Havrda3n = 7Kubat took 4 of 7
S5Kubat0Havrda4n = 4Havrda took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubatHavrdaK − HBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.741.0−7.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 308 vs 109 / 25440.9%42.9%126 / 308 vs 109 / 254Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaKubat 2.63/Havrda 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat—58100C. Havrda—1111123
LAug 12 · 08:00V. Kubat—61121182C. Havrda—114117113
LJul 21 · 08:00V. Kubat—7870C. Havrda—1111113
LApr 20 · 12:30V. Kubat—11711592C. Havrda—711911113
LApr 2 · 08:58V. Kubat—41040C. Havrda—1112113
LApr 2 · 08:30V. Kubat—124671C. Havrda—101111113
LMar 31 · 12:58V. Kubat—11991252C. Havrda—9111110113
WMar 31 · 12:30V. Kubat—11118113C. Havrda—771181
LMar 30 · 10:30V. Kubat—112991C. Havrda—71111113
LMar 24 · 12:30V. Kubat—71271192C. Havrda—1110115113
V. Kubat10
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat2.388560J. Cernik1.531111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113LAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad1.80611911113V. Kubat1.9111811292WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780LAug 27 · 06:30L. Novotny1.4411113113V. Kubat2.63471151WAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:30V. Kubat2.636870M. Smesny1.441111113
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591
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