TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018118
Played Aug 27Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114117311115––
Vladimir Kubat
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:41 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Vladimir Kubat below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 63 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.5%
63 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 17–9 Vladimir Kubat Vladimir Kubat has won 9 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-9 in 26
Novotny
Correct
gap of 8 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1191 vs Kubat 999
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 192 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 40% vs Kubat 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 30% vs Kubat 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Kubat +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.44 / Kubat 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Novotny)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018118
Novotny1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 44 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it79% 34 of 43
Kubat2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog28% won 22 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny7wins
AwayKubat3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny75%6 of 8
AwayKubatn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny8Kubat2n = 10Novotny took 8 of 10
S2Novotny6Kubat4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Novotny5Kubat5n = 10split evenly
S4Novotny5Kubat1n = 6Novotny took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyKubatN − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.531.6+4.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 352 vs 127 / 31450.3%40.5%177 / 352 vs 127 / 314Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.935.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.44/Kubat 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 08:30L. Novotny—1111113V. Kubat—6690
WAug 27 · 09:08L. Novotny—1211113V. Kubat—10750
WAug 27 · 06:30L. Novotny—11113113V. Kubat—471151
WMay 17 · 06:30L. Novotny—1211113V. Kubat—10930
WApr 27 · 07:00L. Novotny—14119113V. Kubat—1281171
LApr 20 · 13:08L. Novotny—117791V. Kubat—81111113
WApr 20 · 10:30L. Novotny—91111113V. Kubat—117641
WApr 2 · 07:30L. Novotny—11811113V. Kubat—611981
LMar 31 · 11:30L. Novotny—11771192V. Kubat—811119113
LMar 30 · 11:30L. Novotny—8580V. Kubat—1111113
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113
V. Kubat10
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat2.388560J. Cernik1.531111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113LAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad1.80611911113V. Kubat1.9111811292WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780WAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:30V. Kubat2.636870M. Smesny1.441111113LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
V. Kubat
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