TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13030175
Played Aug 28Finished
Vladimir Kubat
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811511611––––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:16 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Kubat above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 52 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.5%
52 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Kubat 20–24 Jaromir Cernik Vladimir Kubat has won 20 of their 44 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-24 in 44
Cernik
Correct
gap of 4 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 999 vs Cernik 1083
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 20% vs Cernik 40%
Cernik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 30% vs Cernik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -3 · Cernik -2
Kubat
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.38 / Cernik 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Cernik)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13030175
Kubat2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog28% won 22 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Cernik1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 61 of 104
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it76% 45 of 59
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubat5wins
AwayCernik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubatn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayCernik50%4 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat2Cernik8n = 10Cernik took 8 of 10
S2Kubat3Cernik7n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S3Kubat3Cernik7n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S4Kubat5Cernik2n = 7Kubat took 5 of 7
S5Kubat4Cernik0n = 4Kubat took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubatCernikK − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match38.341.3−3.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime127 / 314 vs 366 / 80140.5%45.7%127 / 314 vs 366 / 801Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikKubat 2.38/Cernik 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.6%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 08:59V. Kubat—11940J. Cernik—1311113
LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat—8560J. Cernik—1111113
WJul 22 · 09:08V. Kubat—11117113J. Cernik—961191
WJul 22 · 07:00V. Kubat—913811123J. Cernik—1111113102
WApr 16 · 09:10V. Kubat—614711113J. Cernik—111211772
WApr 16 · 08:30V. Kubat—531112143J. Cernik—1111410122
LMar 31 · 10:30V. Kubat—971191J. Cernik—11115113
LMar 29 · 24:00V. Kubat—119961J. Cernik—81111113
WMar 24 · 11:30V. Kubat—591213113J. Cernik—1111101182
LMar 4 · 14:00V. Kubat—131090J. Cernik—1512113
V. Kubat10
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113LAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad1.80611911113V. Kubat1.9111811292WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780LAug 27 · 06:30L. Novotny1.4411113113V. Kubat2.63471151WAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:30V. Kubat2.636870M. Smesny1.441111113LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940
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