TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020132
Played Aug 27Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118911112119
Vladimir Kubat
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Vladimir Kubat below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 54–42 Vladimir Kubat Vladimir Kubat has won 42 of their 96 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:16What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
54-42 in 96
Strnad
Correct
gap of 12 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1149 vs Kubat 1051
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 20% vs Kubat 40%
Kubat
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 50% vs Kubat 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +1 · Kubat +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubat form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.80 / Kubat 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Strnad)+3.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020132
Strnad1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As favourite73% won 29 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Kubat1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back20% 9 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad8wins
AwayKubat2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad100%5 of 5
AwayKubat40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad5Kubat5n = 10split evenly
S2Strnad10Kubat0n = 10Strnad took 10 of 10
S3Strnad5Kubat5n = 10split evenly
S4Strnad4Kubat4n = 8split evenly
S5Strnad3Kubat1n = 4Strnad took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadKubatS − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.135.5+4.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadKubatBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 372 vs 128 / 31341.7%40.9%155 / 372 vs 128 / 313Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadStrnad 1.80/Kubat 1.91
Hit
What we said
55.1%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad—611911113V. Kubat—11811292
WAug 24 · 10:00J. Strnad—101115113V. Kubat—1271341
WAug 18 · 08:00J. Strnad—11117143V. Kubat—6411121
WAug 12 · 08:58J. Strnad—1211104113V. Kubat—107121182
WAug 12 · 06:00J. Strnad—41111113V. Kubat—115551
WAug 10 · 06:00J. Strnad—111158113V. Kubat—52111142
LJul 21 · 09:00J. Strnad—211841V. Kubat—11611113
LJul 21 · 07:00J. Strnad—41111912V. Kubat—116711113
WJun 15 · 06:00J. Strnad—1112113V. Kubat—51080
WMay 17 · 09:07J. Strnad—1115113V. Kubat—91380
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
V. Kubat10
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat2.388560J. Cernik1.531111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780LAug 27 · 06:30L. Novotny1.4411113113V. Kubat2.63471151WAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:30V. Kubat2.636870M. Smesny1.441111113LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
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