TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12481117
Played Aug 24Finished
Vladimir Kubat
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811711––––
Milan Smesny
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:47 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladimir Kubat above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Milan Smesny at 56.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vladimir Kubat 15–25 Milan Smesny Vladimir Kubat has won 15 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:47What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Smesny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-25 in 40
Smesny
Correct
gap of 10 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kubat 1059 vs Smesny 1151
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kubat 20% vs Smesny 40%
Smesny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kubat 20% vs Smesny 50%
Smesny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kubat -2 · Smesny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKubat 2.63 / Smesny 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Smesny)+6.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12481117
Kubat2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 22 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 30
Smesny1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 46 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKubat0wins
AwaySmesny10wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 10–0, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKubat0%0 of 6
AwaySmesny100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kubat6Smesny4n = 10Kubat took 6 of 10
S2Kubat1Smesny9n = 10Smesny took 9 of 10
S3Kubat3Smesny7n = 10Smesny took 7 of 10
S4Kubat2Smesny5n = 7Smesny took 5 of 7
S5Kubat0Smesny5n = 5Smesny took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKubatSmesnyK − SBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.443.8−9.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKubatSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 308 vs 189 / 37640.9%50.3%126 / 308 vs 189 / 376Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.837.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnyKubat 2.63/Smesny 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.3%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 22 · 08:30V. Kubat—126144112M. Smesny—10111211133
LJul 21 · 06:30V. Kubat—113741M. Smesny—41111113
LJun 18 · 06:00V. Kubat—12491262M. Smesny—10111110113
LJun 15 · 08:30V. Kubat—111451572M. Smesny—9161113113
LJun 4 · 06:00V. Kubat—116111092M. Smesny—511412113
LMar 4 · 13:30V. Kubat—8360M. Smesny—1111113
LMar 3 · 10:30V. Kubat—114861M. Smesny—61111113
LMar 3 · 08:30V. Kubat—6920M. Smesny—1111113
LFeb 22 · 09:30V. Kubat—81111752M. Smesny—118811113
LFeb 15 · 09:30V. Kubat—91060M. Smesny—1112113
V. Kubat10
LAug 28 · 08:59J. Cernik1.611311113V. Kubat2.2011940LAug 28 · 08:30V. Kubat3.256690L. Novotny1.331111113LAug 28 · 07:00V. Kubat2.388560J. Cernik1.531111113LAug 28 · 06:00A. Tkachenko2.001111123V. Kubat1.7397100LAug 27 · 09:08V. Kubat2.7510750L. Novotny1.401211113LAug 27 · 08:30J. Strnad1.80611911113V. Kubat1.9111811292WAug 27 · 07:30V. Kubat1.831111113A. Tkachenko1.839780LAug 27 · 06:30L. Novotny1.4411113113V. Kubat2.63471151WAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113
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M. Smesny
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