TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082604
Played Sep 6Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181139111113611
Jaroslav Martinek
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:55 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Jaroslav Martinek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 94 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Milan Smesny at 60.5%
94 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 5–1 Jaroslav Martinek Jaroslav Martinek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:55What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Smesny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Smesny
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1195 vs Martinek 1178
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 40% vs Martinek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 60% vs Martinek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +1 · Martinek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Smesny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 1.57 / Martinek 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 40%
Edge (Smesny)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13082604
Smesny1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 48 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Martinek2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 21 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSmesny5wins
AwayMartinek1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderSmesny leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMartinek0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny2Martinek4n = 6Martinek took 4 of 6
S2Smesny5Martinek1n = 6Smesny took 5 of 6
S3Smesny3Martinek3n = 6split evenly
S4Smesny5Martinek1n = 6Smesny took 5 of 6
S5Smesny2Martinek1n = 3Smesny took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricSmesnyMartinekS − MBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match44.038.2+5.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyMartinekBasisWin rate · lifetime191 / 366 vs 75 / 15252.2%49.3%191 / 366 vs 75 / 152Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.335.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnySmesny 1.57/Martinek 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Martinek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny—111191162J. Martinek—831113113
WJul 11 · 07:30M. Smesny—671111113J. Martinek—11119852
WFeb 15 · 10:30M. Smesny—71111123J. Martinek—1193101
WFeb 15 · 08:00M. Smesny—911711113J. Martinek—11811832
WFeb 7 · 02:00M. Smesny—71111123J. Martinek—1198101
WAug 17 · 08:30M. Smesny—11116113J. Martinek—651151
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990
J. Martinek10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113LSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113LAug 26 · 02:58J. Martinek1.535360V. Stach2.381111113WAug 26 · 01:30J. Martinek2.251112123A. Hejduk1.57910100LAug 26 · 24:30J. Grohsgott1.575111011113J. Martinek2.2511512492WAug 25 · 23:30V. Stach1.83891141J. Martinek1.8311117113LAug 25 · 22:30J. Martinek1.7311060T. Kucera2.001112113WAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda1.22161111842J. Martinek4.00189611113WAug 23 · 08:30J. Hyrsl1.80411991J. Martinek1.9111911113
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