TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052429
Played Sep 1Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
115116911711711
Milan Smesny
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:09 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 89 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Milan Smesny at 57.6%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 4–9 Milan Smesny Ladislav Novotny has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Smesny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Smesny
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1210 vs Smesny 1207
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 80% vs Smesny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 80% vs Smesny 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Smesny +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 2.25 / Smesny 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Smesny)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052429
Novotny2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 38 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Smesny1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 44 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny4wins
AwaySmesny6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny75%3 of 4
AwaySmesny83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny4Smesny6n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S2Novotny5Smesny5n = 10split evenly
S3Novotny5Smesny5n = 10split evenly
S4Novotny3Smesny5n = 8Smesny took 5 of 8
S5Novotny2Smesny3n = 5Smesny took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnySmesnyN − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.440.4−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnySmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime179 / 354 vs 190 / 36650.6%51.9%179 / 354 vs 190 / 366Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnyNovotny 2.25/Smesny 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 11:30L. Novotny—911111092M. Smesny—115712113
WJun 23 · 07:00L. Novotny—114115113M. Smesny—71151192
WMay 26 · 11:00L. Novotny—11118113M. Smesny—761181
LMay 11 · 12:00L. Novotny—61040M. Smesny—1112113
LMay 4 · 10:00L. Novotny—7670M. Smesny—1111113
LMar 3 · 07:00L. Novotny—81181122M. Smesny—115116113
LJan 23 · 10:30L. Novotny—414461M. Smesny—111211113
WJan 23 · 08:30L. Novotny—18712113M. Smesny—16111071
LJan 22 · 08:00L. Novotny—11711272M. Smesny—011811113
WJan 5 · 10:00L. Novotny—511119113M. Smesny—11651192
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990
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