TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065099
Played Sep 3Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115116––––
Milan Vrabec
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:21 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 60.1%
53 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 6–1 Milan Vrabec Milan Vrabec has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:21What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Novotny
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1225 vs Vrabec 1160
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 60% vs Vrabec 80%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 70% vs Vrabec 50%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Vrabec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.73 / Vrabec 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Novotny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065099
Novotny1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 44 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it80% 35 of 44
Vrabec2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 25 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeNovotny6wins
AwayVrabec1wins
2 of 7 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny100%5 of 5
AwayVrabecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Vrabec2n = 7Novotny took 5 of 7
S2Novotny5Vrabec2n = 7Novotny took 5 of 7
S3Novotny6Vrabec1n = 7Novotny took 6 of 7
S4Novotny1Vrabec3n = 4Vrabec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricNovotnyVrabecN − VBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match37.629.6+8.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 358 vs 171 / 34050.6%50.3%181 / 358 vs 171 / 340Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.73/Vrabec 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 25 · 09:30L. Novotny—9101121M. Vrabec—11129113
WJul 25 · 08:30L. Novotny—121156113M. Vrabec—104111182
WJun 27 · 07:30L. Novotny—1111113M. Vrabec—7840
WJun 23 · 08:00L. Novotny—1211113M. Vrabec—10340
WJun 13 · 06:00L. Novotny—1111113M. Vrabec—5460
WMay 31 · 08:00L. Novotny—11411113M. Vrabec—611731
WApr 19 · 07:00L. Novotny—711117133M. Vrabec—115411112
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
M. Vrabec10
LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
M. Vrabec
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