TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086694
Played Sep 6Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111181311119––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:58 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Milan Smesny at 58.6%
83 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 12–5 Ladislav Novotny Ladislav Novotny has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:58What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smesny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-5 in 17
Smesny
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1168 vs Novotny 1231
Novotny
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 40% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 50% vs Novotny 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny -2 · Novotny -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 1.80 / Novotny 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smesny)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086694
Smesny1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 46 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Novotny1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 38 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back29% 11 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny7wins
AwayNovotny3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny100%5 of 5
AwayNovotny60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny5Novotny5n = 10split evenly
S2Smesny5Novotny5n = 10split evenly
S3Smesny5Novotny5n = 10split evenly
S4Smesny5Novotny2n = 7Smesny took 5 of 7
S5Smesny4Novotny1n = 5Smesny took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyNovotnyS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.037.9+1.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 365 vs 181 / 35952.1%50.4%190 / 365 vs 181 / 359Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnySmesny 1.80/Novotny 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:00M. Smesny—913911113L. Novotny—111111982
LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny—10560L. Novotny—1211113
WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny—11126113L. Novotny—7101191
WSep 1 · 08:30M. Smesny—561111113L. Novotny—11119772
WAug 25 · 11:30M. Smesny—115712113L. Novotny—911111092
LJun 23 · 07:00M. Smesny—71151192L. Novotny—114115113
LMay 26 · 11:00M. Smesny—761181L. Novotny—11118113
WMay 11 · 12:00M. Smesny—1112113L. Novotny—61040
WMay 4 · 10:00M. Smesny—1111113L. Novotny—7670
WMar 3 · 07:00M. Smesny—115116113L. Novotny—81181122
M. Smesny10
LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
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