TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070586
Played Sep 3Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
121410121311711––
Milan Vrabec
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 90 set 4, 7-11
90 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 7–1 Milan Vrabec Milan Vrabec has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Novotny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.40 / Vrabec 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Novotny)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070586
Novotny1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 44 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it80% 35 of 44
Vrabec2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog29% won 25 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNovotny7wins
AwayVrabec1wins
2 of 8 to a deciderNovotny leads 7–1, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny100%6 of 6
AwayVrabecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny6Vrabec2n = 8Novotny took 6 of 8
S2Novotny6Vrabec2n = 8Novotny took 6 of 8
S3Novotny7Vrabec1n = 8Novotny took 7 of 8
S4Novotny1Vrabec3n = 4Vrabec took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricNovotnyVrabecN − VBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match37.028.4+8.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime181 / 358 vs 171 / 34150.6%50.2%181 / 358 vs 171 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.40/Vrabec 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny—1111113M. Vrabec—9560
LJul 25 · 09:30L. Novotny—9101121M. Vrabec—11129113
WJul 25 · 08:30L. Novotny—121156113M. Vrabec—104111182
WJun 27 · 07:30L. Novotny—1111113M. Vrabec—7840
WJun 23 · 08:00L. Novotny—1211113M. Vrabec—10340
WJun 13 · 06:00L. Novotny—1111113M. Vrabec—5460
WMay 31 · 08:00L. Novotny—11411113M. Vrabec—611731
WApr 19 · 07:00L. Novotny—711117133M. Vrabec—115411112
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
M. Vrabec10
LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113
Upcoming Matches
L. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
M. Vrabec
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