TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13003439
Played Aug 26Finished
Jiri Grohsgott
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111151012114119
Jaroslav Martinek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Martinek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · Jaroslav Martinek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 89 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Jaroslav Martinek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 5–6 Jaroslav Martinek Jiri Grohsgott has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:59What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Grohsgott
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1138 vs Martinek 1190
Martinek
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 60% vs Martinek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 60% vs Martinek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott +2 · Martinek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Grohsgott) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martinek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.57 / Martinek 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Grohsgott)-2.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13003439
Grohsgott1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 148 of 231
Up 2–0, closes it96% 81 of 84
Up 1–0, closes it83% 109 of 132
Martinek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 17 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott4wins
AwayMartinek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMartinek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott60%3 of 5
AwayMartinek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott5Martinek5n = 10split evenly
S2Grohsgott4Martinek6n = 10Martinek took 6 of 10
S3Grohsgott5Martinek5n = 10split evenly
S4Grohsgott1Martinek4n = 5Martinek took 4 of 5
S5Grohsgott2Martinek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottMartinekG − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.136.0+0.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottMartinekBasisWin rate · lifetime747 / 1542 vs 75 / 15448.4%48.7%747 / 1542 vs 75 / 154Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.235.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.57/Martinek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJan 10 · 10:22J. Grohsgott—11670J. Martinek—1311113
WJan 10 · 09:00J. Grohsgott—115118133J. Martinek—411811112
LSep 27 · 02:30J. Grohsgott—41340J. Martinek—111583
LMay 30 · 22:00J. Grohsgott—1110111192J. Martinek—131249113
WMay 23 · 22:30J. Grohsgott—1111113J. Martinek—9580
LApr 4 · 23:00J. Grohsgott—9860J. Martinek—1111113
WFeb 22 · 02:00J. Grohsgott—1111113J. Martinek—7270
LFeb 7 · 21:30J. Grohsgott—11118101J. Martinek—51311123
LFeb 1 · 04:13J. Grohsgott—11115672J. Martinek—491111113
WJan 31 · 23:30J. Grohsgott—711126113J. Martinek—111101162
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172WSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110WSep 5 · 14:30M. Syroha1.91911111092J. Grohsgott1.80113912113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113LSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:30J. Grohsgott1.809119111M. Syroha1.9111811133WSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880
J. Martinek10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113LSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113LAug 26 · 02:58J. Martinek1.535360V. Stach2.381111113WAug 26 · 01:30J. Martinek2.251112123A. Hejduk1.57910100WAug 25 · 23:30V. Stach1.83891141J. Martinek1.8311117113LAug 25 · 22:30J. Martinek1.7311060T. Kucera2.001112113WAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda1.22161111842J. Martinek4.00189611113WAug 23 · 08:30J. Hyrsl1.80411991J. Martinek1.9111911113
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