TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12481112
Played Aug 24Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
311118115119––
Cesta Havrda
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1961 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 69 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1961 at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 13–28 Cesta Havrda Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 13 of their 41 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:49What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Havrda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-28 in 41
Havrda
Wrong
gap of 15 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1156 vs Havrda 1033
Strnad
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 100% vs Havrda 60%
Strnad
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 80% vs Havrda 30%
Strnad
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +5 · Havrda +1
Strnad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Havrda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.63 / Havrda 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Havrda)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12481112
Strnad2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog25% won 16 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Havrda1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 25 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it79% 15 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad2wins
AwayHavrda8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHavrda leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnadn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHavrda87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad2Havrda8n = 10Havrda took 8 of 10
S2Strnad4Havrda6n = 10Havrda took 6 of 10
S3Strnad3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S4Strnad3Havrda5n = 8Havrda took 5 of 8
S5Strnad2Havrda2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadHavrdaS − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match35.544.9−9.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 374 vs 109 / 25441.2%42.9%154 / 374 vs 109 / 254Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaStrnad 2.63/Havrda 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 07:00J. Strnad—11540C. Havrda—1311113
LJul 22 · 13:02J. Strnad—7116111C. Havrda—11911133
WJul 22 · 11:30J. Strnad—5111111113C. Havrda—11813772
LJul 21 · 06:00J. Strnad—41132362C. Havrda—1181121113
LJun 30 · 10:00J. Strnad—681171C. Havrda—11118113
LJun 10 · 08:00J. Strnad—811971C. Havrda—11911113
LJun 9 · 13:05J. Strnad—8650C. Havrda—1111113
LJun 9 · 10:00J. Strnad—11771662C. Havrda—8111114113
LMay 11 · 12:30J. Strnad—741181C. Havrda—11118113
WApr 20 · 13:30J. Strnad—114123113C. Havrda—911101192
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 13:30M. Smesny2.00115612102C. Havrda1.739111110123WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113WAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
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