TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013235
Played Aug 25Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11951161112101012
Cesta Havrda
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Cesta Havrda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 97 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Milan Smesny at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 14–21 Cesta Havrda Milan Smesny has won 14 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:58What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Havrda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-21 in 35
Havrda
Correct
gap of 7 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1202 vs Havrda 1042
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 100% vs Havrda 40%
Smesny
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 70% vs Havrda 50%
Smesny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +5 · Havrda +2
Smesny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Havrda) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Havrda form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.00 / Havrda 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Havrda)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13013235
Smesny2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog30% won 16 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back11% 3 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Havrda1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 26 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny6wins
AwayHavrda4wins
9 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 6–4, and 9 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny66.7%4 of 6
AwayHavrda50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny6Havrda4n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S2Smesny7Havrda3n = 10Smesny took 7 of 10
S3Smesny3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S4Smesny3Havrda7n = 10Havrda took 7 of 10
S5Smesny6Havrda3n = 9Smesny took 6 of 9
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyHavrdaS − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match47.646.7+0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyHavrdaBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 377 vs 111 / 25951.2%42.9%193 / 377 vs 111 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavrdaSmesny 2.00/Havrda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.7%
Havrda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Havrda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 25 · 10:30M. Smesny—121195133C. Havrda—1091111112
WAug 24 · 10:30M. Smesny—1111611113C. Havrda—71311982
LJul 21 · 09:30M. Smesny—161187112C. Havrda—1441111133
WJul 21 · 07:30M. Smesny—5131011113C. Havrda—111112332
LJun 24 · 08:30M. Smesny—481191C. Havrda—11116113
LJun 23 · 08:30M. Smesny—1311811112C. Havrda—158117133
WJun 16 · 13:04M. Smesny—1311114113C. Havrda—15481152
WJun 16 · 12:30M. Smesny—111176113C. Havrda—69111182
LJun 10 · 06:30M. Smesny—12911722C. Havrda—1011811113
WJun 9 · 12:30M. Smesny—1111107113C. Havrda—48121172
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113
C. Havrda10
LSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113WSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:00C. Havrda2.209111081Z. Kasinski1.6111712113WAug 25 · 12:00L. Novotny1.507470C. Havrda2.501111113WAug 25 · 11:00J. Strnad2.50912121442C. Havrda1.5011101016113LAug 25 · 10:30C. Havrda1.801091111112M. Smesny1.91121195133LAug 24 · 12:58C. Havrda1.44681171V. Kubat2.6311115113LAug 24 · 12:00J. Strnad2.6331111113C. Havrda1.44118591WAug 24 · 11:00V. Kubat2.6358100C. Havrda1.441111123
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