TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042067
Played Aug 31Finished
Jiri Grohsgott
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116112117––––
David Mutl
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:05 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Grohsgott above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 48 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 62.0%
48 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Grohsgott 7–3 David Mutl David Mutl has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Grohsgott
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Grohsgott
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grohsgott 1188 vs Mutl 1186
Grohsgott
Correct
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grohsgott 60% vs Mutl 40%
Grohsgott
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grohsgott 40% vs Mutl 60%
Mutl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grohsgott +2 · Mutl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Grohsgott) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrohsgott 1.61 / Mutl 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Grohsgott)-1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042067
Grohsgott1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 154 of 242
Up 2–0, closes it96% 85 of 89
Up 1–0, closes it82% 114 of 139
Mutl2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 29 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrohsgott7wins
AwayMutl3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrohsgott100%6 of 6
AwayMutl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grohsgott6Mutl4n = 10Grohsgott took 6 of 10
S2Grohsgott8Mutl2n = 10Grohsgott took 8 of 10
S3Grohsgott5Mutl5n = 10split evenly
S4Grohsgott2Mutl4n = 6Mutl took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrohsgottMutlG − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.232.6+2.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrohsgottMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime746 / 1542 vs 55 / 10848.4%50.9%746 / 1542 vs 55 / 108Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottGrohsgott 1.61/Mutl 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.7%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 24:30J. Grohsgott—1111113D. Mutl—6270
LAug 29 · 22:30J. Grohsgott—591161D. Mutl—11118113
WJul 15 · 03:00J. Grohsgott—1111113D. Mutl—9480
WJul 15 · 01:00J. Grohsgott—1111113D. Mutl—2570
WJul 13 · 24:30J. Grohsgott—11117113D. Mutl—981171
LJul 3 · 02:30J. Grohsgott—611741D. Mutl—11911113
WJun 30 · 22:00J. Grohsgott—611127113D. Mutl—119101182
WJun 27 · 03:30J. Grohsgott—111111113D. Mutl—681341
LJun 27 · 02:00J. Grohsgott—8270D. Mutl—1111113
WJun 12 · 22:00J. Grohsgott—111139123D. Mutl—851111102
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172WSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110WSep 5 · 14:30M. Syroha1.91911111092J. Grohsgott1.80113912113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113LSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:30J. Grohsgott1.809119111M. Syroha1.9111811133WSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113
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