TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13085843
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Ulrych
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161113111116––
Miroslav Novotny
Away
3.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:29 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Ulrych to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Ulrych above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 70 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Martin Ulrych at 62.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Martin Ulrych 1–1 Miroslav Novotny Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Ulrych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ulrych 1451 vs Novotny 1306
Ulrych
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ulrych 100% vs Novotny 60%
Ulrych
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ulrych 70% vs Novotny 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ulrych +5 · Novotny +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Ulrych) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUlrych 1.36 / Novotny 3.00
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Ulrych)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13085843
Ulrych1.36
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 42 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Novotny3.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 12 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back12% 2 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeUlrych1wins
AwayNovotny1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricUlrychNovotnyU − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.032.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUlrychNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 152 vs 159 / 33560.5%47.5%92 / 152 vs 159 / 335Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UlrychUlrych 1.36/Novotny 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.8%
Ulrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ulrych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych—1111113M. Novotny—9580
LJul 24 · 22:30M. Ulrych—1091151M. Novotny—12118113
M. Ulrych10
WSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651WSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113WSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580WAug 31 · 13:30M. Ulrych2.63911911113Z. Zikmunda1.4411811772WAug 31 · 12:00M. Ulrych2.201111113A. Svoboda1.617380LAug 31 · 11:30Z. Zikmunda1.5711611113M. Ulrych2.25611691WAug 31 · 10:00M. Ulrych1.671111143P. Kulhanek2.1068120WAug 31 · 09:00Z. Zikmunda1.5010111071M. Ulrych2.5012712113LAug 31 · 08:00A. Svoboda1.831111113M. Ulrych1.838670
M. Novotny10
WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123LAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol1.401111113M. Novotny2.756650WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny2.50111011113J. Framberk1.50412451WAug 28 · 16:30P. Kulhanek1.44137891M. Novotny2.63111111113
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