TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077687
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Ulrych
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115118––––
Miroslav Novotny
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Ulrych above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 55 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Martin Ulrych 1–1 Miroslav Novotny Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:00What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Novotny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ulrych 1397 vs Novotny 1262
Ulrych
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ulrych 80% vs Novotny 20%
Ulrych
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ulrych 50% vs Novotny 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ulrych +2 · Novotny -4
Novotny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ulrych) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUlrych 1.83 / Novotny 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ulrych)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077687
Ulrych1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Novotny1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeUlrych1wins
AwayNovotny1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricUlrychNovotnyU − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.032.0+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUlrychNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 149 vs 156 / 33259.7%47%89 / 149 vs 156 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UlrychUlrych 1.83/Novotny 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ulrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ulrych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych—1111113M. Novotny—9580
LJul 24 · 22:30M. Ulrych—1091151M. Novotny—12118113
M. Ulrych10
WSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651WSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113WAug 31 · 13:30M. Ulrych2.63911911113Z. Zikmunda1.4411811772WAug 31 · 12:00M. Ulrych2.201111113A. Svoboda1.617380LAug 31 · 11:30Z. Zikmunda1.5711611113M. Ulrych2.25611691WAug 31 · 10:00M. Ulrych1.671111143P. Kulhanek2.1068120WAug 31 · 09:00Z. Zikmunda1.5010111071M. Ulrych2.5012712113LAug 31 · 08:00A. Svoboda1.831111113M. Ulrych1.838670
M. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123LAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol1.401111113M. Novotny2.756650WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny2.50111011113J. Framberk1.50412451WAug 28 · 16:30P. Kulhanek1.44137891M. Novotny2.63111111113
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