TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087588
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911119115511119
Petr Picek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 92 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Petr Picek at 54.0%
92 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 35–43 Petr Picek Jan Steffan has won 35 of their 78 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:22What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Picek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-43 in 78
Picek
Wrong
gap of 8 in 78, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1430 vs Picek 1440
Picek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 40% vs Picek 0%
Steffan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 30% vs Picek 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan +2 · Picek -5
Picek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Picek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.91 / Picek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Picek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087588
Steffan1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 93 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Picek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 82 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it82% 64 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan3wins
AwayPicek7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan33.3%1 of 3
AwayPicek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan3Picek7n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S2Steffan5Picek5n = 10split evenly
S3Steffan5Picek5n = 10split evenly
S4Steffan4Picek5n = 9Picek took 5 of 9
S5Steffan2Picek4n = 6Picek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanPicekS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.344.9−3.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 970 vs 275 / 55247.9%49.8%465 / 970 vs 275 / 552Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekSteffan 1.91/Picek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan—911115113P. Picek—11951192
LAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan—61191192P. Picek—118116113
LAug 22 · 23:00J. Steffan—138461P. Picek—111111113
LAug 2 · 23:30J. Steffan—78111162P. Picek—111168113
WAug 1 · 22:00J. Steffan—381111113P. Picek—11118682
WJul 26 · 23:30J. Steffan—131112123P. Picek—11714101
LJul 24 · 02:00J. Steffan—13123992P. Picek—11101111113
LJul 17 · 02:58J. Steffan—791181P. Picek—11118113
LJul 17 · 02:30J. Steffan—11570P. Picek—1311113
LMay 25 · 24:30J. Steffan—101111992P. Picek—127911113
J. Steffan10
LSep 8 · 03:30J. Steffan2.031171011K. Darin1.6291112113WSep 8 · 01:00J. Steffan2.001111113O. Vitrovyj1.739760WSep 8 · 24:00M. Placek1.40811371J. Steffan2.7511411113LSep 7 · 22:30K. Darin1.61114811113J. Steffan2.2061111672LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180
P. Picek10
LSep 8 · 24:30P. Picek2.0010570K. Darin1.731211113LSep 7 · 23:00P. Picek2.63711291M. Placek1.4411911113LSep 7 · 22:00O. Vitrovyj2.7511811113P. Picek1.40911831LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102LSep 1 · 02:00P. Picek2.10211571K. Darin1.6711711113WSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WSep 1 · 24:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57711119112P. Picek2.25119611133WAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan1.9161191192P. Picek1.80118116113LAug 23 · 03:00P. Picek3.508740O. Kucirek1.281111113LAug 23 · 02:00O. Kucirek1.2811511113P. Picek3.50511841
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