TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13048060
Played Sep 1Finished
Petr Picek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113117311116––
Jan Varcl Jnr
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Picek above · Jan Varcl Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 63 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Petr Picek at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Petr Picek 3–4 Jan Varcl Jnr Petr Picek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:13What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Picek 1513 vs Jnr 1540
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Picek 60% vs Jnr 80%
Jnr
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Picek 50% vs Jnr 80%
Jnr
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Picek +2 · Jnr +3
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Picek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPicek 1.80 / Jnr 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Picek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13048060
Picek1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 82 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it82% 62 of 76
Jnr1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 18 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePicek3wins
AwayJnr4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderJnr leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePicek100%3 of 3
AwayJnr100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Picek3Jnr4n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S2Picek4Jnr3n = 7Picek took 4 of 7
S3Picek3Jnr4n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S4Picek2Jnr2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPicekJnrP − JBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match36.036.4−0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPicekJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime280 / 555 vs 118 / 22750.5%52%280 / 555 vs 118 / 227Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekPicek 1.80/Jnr 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WApr 30 · 24:00P. Picek—1111113J. Jnr—9560
WMar 19 · 24:30P. Picek—119911113J. Jnr—51111612
LFeb 26 · 01:30P. Picek—514351J. Jnr—111211113
WJan 13 · 03:30P. Picek—1211113J. Jnr—10870
LSep 9 · 01:30P. Picek—46140J. Jnr—1111163
LMay 6 · 24:00P. Picek—1061131J. Jnr—12117113
LApr 16 · 22:00P. Picek—911911132J. Jnr—118117153
P. Picek10
LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102LSep 1 · 02:00P. Picek2.10211571K. Darin1.6711711113WSep 1 · 24:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57711119112P. Picek2.25119611133WAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan1.9161191192P. Picek1.80118116113LAug 23 · 03:00P. Picek3.508740O. Kucirek1.281111113LAug 23 · 02:00O. Kucirek1.2811511113P. Picek3.50511841WAug 23 · 24:30P. Picek1.83127113113M. Smrcek1.83101171142WAug 22 · 23:00P. Picek1.80111111113J. Steffan1.91138461LAug 22 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk1.73119311113P. Picek2.0091111352WAug 21 · 03:28M. Stefek1.916670P. Picek1.801111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 02:00J. Jnr1.911111581K. Darin1.8071311113LSep 3 · 01:00J. Jnr2.2081181242D. Parhomenko1.611151110113LSep 3 · 24:00P. Fojt1.61811711113J. Jnr2.2011811932LSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102WSep 1 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.10811116142J. Jnr1.67116411163WAug 31 · 23:30J. Jnr1.617121110113J. Steffan2.20111071222WAug 31 · 22:00J. Jnr2.0011117113K. Darin1.73991181WAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr1.731112113J. Steffan2.0081090LAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113
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