TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13048058
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Varcl Jnr
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
71112101171012112
Jan Steffan
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:14 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJan Varcl Jnr to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Varcl Jnr above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 93 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Jan Varcl Jnr at 57.3%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Varcl Jnr 12–15 Jan Steffan Jan Varcl Jnr has won 12 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-15 in 27
Steffan
Wrong
gap of 3 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1531 vs Steffan 1473
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Steffan 60%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Steffan 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Steffan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.61 / Steffan 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Jnr)-0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13048058
Jnr1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 38 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Steffan2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 90 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr6wins
AwaySteffan4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr66.7%6 of 9
AwaySteffann = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr9Steffan1n = 10Jnr took 9 of 10
S2Jnr5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S4Jnr2Steffan5n = 7Steffan took 5 of 7
S5Jnr2Steffan2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSteffanJ − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match41.240.2+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 227 vs 464 / 96352%48.2%118 / 227 vs 464 / 963Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.61/Steffan 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr—1112113J. Steffan—81090
WAug 26 · 06:00J. Jnr—131210113J. Steffan—11101241
WAug 13 · 01:00J. Jnr—11911113J. Steffan—911981
LAug 10 · 23:30J. Jnr—710100J. Steffan—1112123
WJul 7 · 18:30J. Jnr—111437113J. Steffan—812111152
LMay 28 · 21:00J. Jnr—11813101J. Steffan—71115123
WMay 28 · 18:30J. Jnr—117116113J. Steffan—71171142
LApr 30 · 02:00J. Jnr—114127102J. Steffan—9111011123
WApr 21 · 09:30J. Jnr—1111153J. Steffan—49130
LApr 21 · 07:30J. Jnr—16116872J. Steffan—1481111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 02:00J. Jnr1.911111581K. Darin1.8071311113LSep 3 · 01:00J. Jnr2.2081181242D. Parhomenko1.611151110113LSep 3 · 24:00P. Fojt1.61811711113J. Jnr2.2011811932LSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102WSep 1 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.10811116142J. Jnr1.67116411163LSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WAug 31 · 22:00J. Jnr2.0011117113K. Darin1.73991181WAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr1.731112113J. Steffan2.0081090LAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113LAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr1.731112113J. Steffan2.0081090
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