TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013721
Played Aug 26Finished
Jan Varcl Jnr
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111145111311911
Milan Smrcek
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:57 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeJan Varcl Jnr to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Varcl Jnr above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 91 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jan Varcl Jnr at 60.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jan Varcl Jnr 3–4 Milan Smrcek Jan Varcl Jnr has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:57What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smrcek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1513 vs Smrcek 1391
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Smrcek 0%
Jnr
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 60% vs Smrcek 0%
Jnr
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +2 · Smrcek -5
Smrcek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smrcek) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smrcek form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.91 / Smrcek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Smrcek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13013721
Jnr1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back18% 4 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Smrcek1.80
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite69% won 47 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwaySmrcek4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderSmrcek leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr100%3 of 3
AwaySmrcek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Smrcek4n = 7Smrcek took 4 of 7
S2Jnr2Smrcek5n = 7Smrcek took 5 of 7
S3Jnr4Smrcek3n = 7Jnr took 4 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricJnrSmrcekJ − SBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match28.733.1−4.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 223 vs 245 / 50751.6%48.3%115 / 223 vs 245 / 507Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmrcekJnr 1.91/Smrcek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Smrcek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Smrcek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LApr 30 · 01:00J. Jnr—6650M. Smrcek—1111113
LApr 28 · 24:30J. Jnr—6960M. Smrcek—1111113
LJan 29 · 10:23J. Jnr—3770M. Smrcek—1111113
LJan 29 · 08:00J. Jnr—491181M. Smrcek—11117113
WJan 8 · 10:00J. Jnr—1111113M. Smrcek—9870
WJan 8 · 08:00J. Jnr—1111113M. Smrcek—7990
WSep 30 · 01:00J. Jnr—1110115113M. Smrcek—61281172
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 02:00J. Jnr1.911111581K. Darin1.8071311113LSep 3 · 01:00J. Jnr2.2081181242D. Parhomenko1.611151110113LSep 3 · 24:00P. Fojt1.61811711113J. Jnr2.2011811932LSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102WSep 1 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.10811116142J. Jnr1.67116411163LSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WAug 31 · 23:30J. Jnr1.617121110113J. Steffan2.20111071222WAug 31 · 22:00J. Jnr2.0011117113K. Darin1.73991181WAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr1.731112113J. Steffan2.0081090
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.6711711452J. Steffan2.10311611113LAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin1.5361111113M. Smrcek2.38114671LAug 24 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.44119371R. Bartunek2.6381111113LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121LAug 24 · 24:00M. Smrcek1.2811811362P. Bruzek3.50411811113
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