TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13014155
Played Aug 26Finished
Milan Smrcek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311611911911––
Tibor Kolenic
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:59 and never touched — 69.3% is still 69.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Smrcek to win
69.3%
69.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Smrcek above · Tibor Kolenic below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 81 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Milan Smrcek at 69.3%
81 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smrcek 7–3 Tibor Kolenic Tibor Kolenic has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:59What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Smrcek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Smrcek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smrcek 1374 vs Kolenic 1542
Kolenic
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smrcek 20% vs Kolenic 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smrcek 10% vs Kolenic 60%
Kolenic
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smrcek -2 · Kolenic -4
Kolenic
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Smrcek) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolenic form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmrcek 1.80 / Kolenic 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Smrcek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13014155
Smrcek1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 47 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Kolenic1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog33% won 38 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back11% 8 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmrcek7wins
AwayKolenic3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSmrcek leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmrcek85.7%6 of 7
AwayKolenic66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smrcek7Kolenic3n = 10Smrcek took 7 of 10
S2Smrcek7Kolenic3n = 10Smrcek took 7 of 10
S3Smrcek7Kolenic3n = 10Smrcek took 7 of 10
S4Smrcek3Kolenic2n = 5Smrcek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmrcekKolenicS − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.229.7+8.5per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmrcekKolenicBasisWin rate · lifetime246 / 510 vs 268 / 57348.2%46.8%246 / 510 vs 268 / 573Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmrcekSmrcek 1.80/Kolenic 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Smrcek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kolenic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 13 · 01:30M. Smrcek—991191T. Kolenic—11113113
WApr 3 · 09:00M. Smrcek—1111123T. Kolenic—74100
WApr 3 · 08:30M. Smrcek—1111113T. Kolenic—6950
WMar 31 · 19:00M. Smrcek—1111113T. Kolenic—3730
WMar 30 · 11:00M. Smrcek—1111113T. Kolenic—8580
WFeb 5 · 24:30M. Smrcek—61111113T. Kolenic—117961
WJan 25 · 23:00M. Smrcek—117811133T. Kolenic—711113112
LJan 22 · 03:30M. Smrcek—11791192T. Kolenic—511116113
WJan 20 · 14:00M. Smrcek—1111123T. Kolenic—48100
LJan 20 · 11:00M. Smrcek—9119121T. Kolenic—11811143
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.6711711452J. Steffan2.10311611113LAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin1.5361111113M. Smrcek2.38114671LAug 24 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.44119371R. Bartunek2.6381111113LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121LAug 24 · 24:00M. Smrcek1.2811811362P. Bruzek3.50411811113
T. Kolenic10
LAug 31 · 17:01J. Dedek1.851111113T. Kolenic1.858480WAug 31 · 16:30T. Kolenic1.83117511113J. Dedek1.8371111792LAug 31 · 15:00T. Kolenic2.20118991J. Trefny1.6151111113LAug 31 · 14:00R. Pavelka1.28351111113T. Kolenic3.5011114672LAug 31 · 08:58M. Kolar1.221111113T. Kolenic4.009570LAug 31 · 08:30M. Kolar1.251113113T. Kolenic3.7541140WAug 31 · 07:30T. Kolenic2.75813813113M. Vedmoch1.401111111162LAug 31 · 06:30J. Plachy1.801111113T. Kolenic1.919660WAug 28 · 21:08F. Briza2.1581141152T. Kolenic1.63116116113WAug 28 · 20:30T. Kolenic1.671013811153F. Briza2.101211118132
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