TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13012900
Played Aug 26Finished
Kyryl Darin
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611114116117––
Milan Smrcek
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Darin above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 67 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Kyryl Darin at 67.7%
67 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Darin 22–16 Milan Smrcek Milan Smrcek has won 16 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:26What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-16 in 38
Darin
Correct
gap of 6 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Darin 1424 vs Smrcek 1365
Darin
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Darin 80% vs Smrcek 0%
Darin
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Darin 60% vs Smrcek 20%
Darin
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Darin +2 · Smrcek -5
Smrcek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Darin) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smrcek form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDarin 1.53 / Smrcek 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Darin)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13012900
Darin1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 158 of 277
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it76% 108 of 143
Smrcek2.38
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back21% 10 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDarin6wins
AwaySmrcek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDarin75%3 of 4
AwaySmrcek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Darin4Smrcek6n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10
S2Darin7Smrcek3n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S3Darin5Smrcek5n = 10split evenly
S4Darin5Smrcek3n = 8Darin took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDarinSmrcekD − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.332.8+4.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDarinSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime763 / 1548 vs 247 / 51349.3%48.2%763 / 1548 vs 247 / 513Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DarinDarin 1.53/Smrcek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.2%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin—311771M. Smrcek—11411113
WAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin—11113113M. Smrcek—791191
WAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin—312811113M. Smrcek—111011362
WAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin—61111113M. Smrcek—114671
WMay 25 · 02:30K. Darin—1111113M. Smrcek—5820
LApr 29 · 23:30K. Darin—7980M. Smrcek—1111113
WApr 24 · 09:30K. Darin—11611123M. Smrcek—3119101
LApr 24 · 07:30K. Darin—6118111M. Smrcek—11211133
LApr 5 · 02:30K. Darin—117119122M. Smrcek—111811143
WMar 17 · 23:30K. Darin—91111113M. Smrcek—117141
K. Darin10
WSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671WSep 7 · 08:30K. Darin1.44121111113J. Didi2.63147991LSep 7 · 07:00K. Darin1.618690T. Andrle2.201111113LSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:00K. Darin1.801111511102F. Jungman1.91281113123WSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.738111011113K. Darin2.0011912472LSep 5 · 20:30K. Darin2.505511101J. Plachy1.5011118123
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.6711711452J. Steffan2.10311611113LAug 24 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.44119371R. Bartunek2.6381111113LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121LAug 24 · 24:00M. Smrcek1.2811811362P. Bruzek3.50411811113
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