TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13014138
Played Aug 26Finished
Yurii Holovatiuk
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117611118114––
Milan Smrcek
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:58 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeYurii Holovatiuk to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Holovatiuk above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Yurii Holovatiuk at 75.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Holovatiuk 12–3 Milan Smrcek Milan Smrcek has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:58What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Holovatiuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-3 in 15
Holovatiuk
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holovatiuk 1515 vs Smrcek 1368
Holovatiuk
Correct
both rated, 148 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holovatiuk 80% vs Smrcek 20%
Holovatiuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holovatiuk 50% vs Smrcek 10%
Holovatiuk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holovatiuk +3 · Smrcek -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Holovatiuk) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smrcek form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolovatiuk 1.40 / Smrcek 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Holovatiuk)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13014138
Holovatiuk1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 69 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it77% 47 of 61
Smrcek2.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 29 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back22% 10 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolovatiuk10wins
AwaySmrcek0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolovatiuk leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolovatiuk100%6 of 6
AwaySmrcek0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holovatiuk6Smrcek4n = 10Holovatiuk took 6 of 10
S2Holovatiuk8Smrcek2n = 10Holovatiuk took 8 of 10
S3Holovatiuk8Smrcek2n = 10Holovatiuk took 8 of 10
S4Holovatiuk6Smrcek1n = 7Holovatiuk took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolovatiukSmrcekH − SBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.732.3+9.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolovatiukSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime307 / 632 vs 246 / 51148.6%48.1%307 / 632 vs 246 / 511Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolovatiukHolovatiuk 1.40/Smrcek 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Holovatiuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holovatiuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 23:30Y. Holovatiuk—491111113M. Smrcek—11116862
WJan 25 · 07:00Y. Holovatiuk—1112113M. Smrcek—71060
WDec 28 · 03:00Y. Holovatiuk—1111113M. Smrcek—7480
WMay 12 · 23:30Y. Holovatiuk—131211113M. Smrcek—1510981
WMay 11 · 09:30Y. Holovatiuk—1111113M. Smrcek—3930
WMay 11 · 07:30Y. Holovatiuk—13118113M. Smrcek—1181131
WApr 5 · 17:02Y. Holovatiuk—81111113M. Smrcek—114651
WApr 5 · 16:30Y. Holovatiuk—111013123M. Smrcek—71211101
WMar 30 · 13:30Y. Holovatiuk—1111711123M. Smrcek—891113102
WMar 30 · 10:00Y. Holovatiuk—91111113M. Smrcek—116961
Y. Holovatiuk10
WSep 6 · 03:29P. Fojt1.332690Y. Holovatiuk3.251111113LSep 6 · 02:30V. Postelt1.2811115113Y. Holovatiuk3.50751161WSep 6 · 01:00J. Plachy1.7312660Y. Holovatiuk2.001411113LSep 5 · 23:30Y. Holovatiuk3.2575111162P. Fojt1.33111195113WSep 5 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk2.10111114113J. Prokupek1.671381211WSep 5 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.738111011113K. Darin2.0011912472LSep 5 · 20:00L. Krok1.611411113Y. Holovatiuk2.2012460WSep 5 · 19:00K. Darin1.91316100Y. Holovatiuk1.801118123LSep 5 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk2.0011461172J. Plachy1.73811117113WSep 5 · 03:28Y. Holovatiuk1.8311511153K. Darin1.830118131
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.6711711452J. Steffan2.10311611113LAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin1.5361111113M. Smrcek2.38114671LAug 24 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.44119371R. Bartunek2.6381111113LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121LAug 24 · 24:00M. Smrcek1.2811811362P. Bruzek3.50411811113
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