TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12476293
Played Aug 24Finished
Milan Smrcek
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118911311711––
Radek Bartunek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:06 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeMilan Smrcek to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Smrcek above · Radek Bartunek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 71 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Milan Smrcek at 67.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smrcek 11–5 Radek Bartunek Radek Bartunek has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:06What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Smrcek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Smrcek
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smrcek 1444 vs Bartunek 1481
Bartunek
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smrcek 0% vs Bartunek 40%
Bartunek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smrcek 40% vs Bartunek 60%
Bartunek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smrcek -5 · Bartunek -2
Smrcek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Smrcek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smrcek form (0%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmrcek 1.44 / Bartunek 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Smrcek)+3.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12476293
Smrcek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite74% won 49 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Bartunek2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 52 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back24% 19 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmrcek6wins
AwayBartunek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmrcek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmrcek83.3%5 of 6
AwayBartunek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smrcek6Bartunek4n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10
S2Smrcek5Bartunek5n = 10split evenly
S3Smrcek6Bartunek4n = 10Smrcek took 6 of 10
S4Smrcek4Bartunek2n = 6Smrcek took 4 of 6
S5Smrcek2Bartunek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmrcekBartunekS − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.1+4.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmrcekBartunekBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 506 vs 335 / 64448.8%52%247 / 506 vs 335 / 644Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmrcekSmrcek 1.44/Bartunek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.5%
Smrcek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bartunek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 28 · 01:00M. Smrcek—1111113R. Bartunek—8360
WFeb 21 · 03:30M. Smrcek—119611113R. Bartunek—61111872
WFeb 19 · 18:00M. Smrcek—81211113R. Bartunek—1110781
LFeb 19 · 16:30M. Smrcek—1110101142R. Bartunek—612125113
WFeb 15 · 09:30M. Smrcek—1311113R. Bartunek—11570
LJan 23 · 23:00M. Smrcek—911111102R. Bartunek—111191123
WJan 4 · 04:04M. Smrcek—113117113R. Bartunek—41181182
LJan 4 · 03:30M. Smrcek—611961R. Bartunek—11911113
WDec 31 · 02:00M. Smrcek—1111113R. Bartunek—3360
LDec 21 · 24:00M. Smrcek—101190R. Bartunek—1213113
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.6711711452J. Steffan2.10311611113LAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin1.5361111113M. Smrcek2.38114671LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121LAug 24 · 24:00M. Smrcek1.2811811362P. Bruzek3.50411811113
R. Bartunek10
LSep 5 · 02:00K. Darin1.531111113R. Bartunek2.385690LSep 5 · 24:30R. Bartunek2.75114110D. Horak1.401311133LSep 4 · 23:00R. Bartunek2.00491131Y. Holovatiuk1.7311114113WSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113WSep 2 · 20:58V. Dolezal1.61119591R. Bartunek2.2051111113LSep 2 · 20:00R. Bartunek2.631111581M. Fisera1.4413811113LSep 2 · 19:30O. Kucirek2.2513111011113R. Bartunek1.5715912782LSep 2 · 18:00R. Bartunek2.0015311862V. Dolezal1.731311811113WSep 1 · 03:30O. Vitrovyj2.55811691R. Bartunek1.4511611113LSep 1 · 02:30R. Bartunek1.30111090O. Vitrovyj3.401312113
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