TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13013842
Played Aug 26Finished
Milan Smrcek
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 9Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 9
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
113711116411511
Jan Steffan
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:29 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMilan Smrcek to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Smrcek above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 80 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Milan Smrcek at 56.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smrcek 28–20 Jan Steffan Jan Steffan has won 20 of their 48 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:29What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Smrcek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-20 in 48
Smrcek
Wrong
gap of 8 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smrcek 1365 vs Steffan 1451
Steffan
Correct
both rated, 85 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smrcek 0% vs Steffan 80%
Steffan
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smrcek 10% vs Steffan 70%
Steffan
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smrcek -5 · Steffan -1
Smrcek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Smrcek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmrcek 1.67 / Steffan 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Smrcek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13013842
Smrcek1.67
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 9
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 48 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it86% 37 of 43
Steffan2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 88 of 235
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 125
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmrcek5wins
AwaySteffan5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmrcek80%4 of 5
AwaySteffan80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smrcek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S2Smrcek3Steffan7n = 10Steffan took 7 of 10
S3Smrcek8Steffan2n = 10Smrcek took 8 of 10
S4Smrcek3Steffan5n = 8Steffan took 5 of 8
S5Smrcek2Steffan2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmrcekSteffanSmrcek − SteffanBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.139.0+0.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmrcekSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime247 / 513 vs 461 / 96148.2%48%247 / 513 vs 461 / 961Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmrcekSmrcek 1.67/Steffan 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Smrcek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Steffan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek—11711452J. Steffan—311611113
LAug 23 · 01:30M. Smrcek—1041161J. Steffan—12119113
LMay 25 · 01:31M. Smrcek—771171J. Steffan—11119113
WMay 24 · 22:00M. Smrcek—691111123J. Steffan—111165102
WApr 29 · 22:00M. Smrcek—119128113J. Steffan—411101182
LApr 24 · 08:30M. Smrcek—911131272J. Steffan—1161114113
WApr 10 · 24:00M. Smrcek—1111113J. Steffan—7880
WApr 4 · 22:00M. Smrcek—11511133J. Steffan—9113111
WApr 1 · 13:30M. Smrcek—11118113J. Steffan—841181
LApr 1 · 10:00M. Smrcek—94110J. Steffan—1111133
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113LAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin1.5361111113M. Smrcek2.38114671LAug 24 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.44119371R. Bartunek2.6381111113LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121LAug 24 · 24:00M. Smrcek1.2811811362P. Bruzek3.50411811113
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113WSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113
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