TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13057000
Played Sep 1Finished
Jan Varcl Jnr
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
7119111161151210
Petr Picek
Away
2.02
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Varcl Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Varcl Jnr above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 93 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Jan Varcl Jnr at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Varcl Jnr 4–4 Petr Picek Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1528 vs Picek 1521
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 80% vs Picek 60%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Picek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Picek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.70 / Picek 2.02
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jnr)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13057000
Jnr1.70
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 38 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it77% 24 of 31
Picek2.02
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 26 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back16% 9 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJnr4wins
AwayPicek4wins
2 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr100%4 of 4
AwayPicek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr4Picek4n = 8split evenly
S2Jnr3Picek5n = 8Picek took 5 of 8
S3Jnr5Picek3n = 8Jnr took 5 of 8
S4Jnr2Picek3n = 5Picek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricJnrPicekJ − PBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match35.236.0−0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 229 vs 281 / 55752%50.5%119 / 229 vs 281 / 557Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.70/Picek 2.02
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 1 · 01:00J. Jnr—371161P. Picek—11113113
LApr 30 · 24:00J. Jnr—9560P. Picek—1111113
LMar 19 · 24:30J. Jnr—51111612P. Picek—119911113
WFeb 26 · 01:30J. Jnr—111211113P. Picek—514351
LJan 13 · 03:30J. Jnr—10870P. Picek—1211113
WSep 9 · 01:30J. Jnr—1111163P. Picek—46140
WMay 6 · 24:00J. Jnr—12117113P. Picek—1061131
WApr 16 · 22:00J. Jnr—118117153P. Picek—911911132
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 02:00J. Jnr1.911111581K. Darin1.8071311113LSep 3 · 01:00J. Jnr2.2081181242D. Parhomenko1.611151110113LSep 3 · 24:00P. Fojt1.61811711113J. Jnr2.2011811932LSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WSep 1 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.10811116142J. Jnr1.67116411163LSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WAug 31 · 23:30J. Jnr1.617121110113J. Steffan2.20111071222WAug 31 · 22:00J. Jnr2.0011117113K. Darin1.73991181WAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr1.731112113J. Steffan2.0081090LAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113
P. Picek10
LSep 1 · 02:00P. Picek2.10211571K. Darin1.6711711113WSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WSep 1 · 24:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57711119112P. Picek2.25119611133WAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan1.9161191192P. Picek1.80118116113LAug 23 · 03:00P. Picek3.508740O. Kucirek1.281111113LAug 23 · 02:00O. Kucirek1.2811511113P. Picek3.50511841WAug 23 · 24:30P. Picek1.83127113113M. Smrcek1.83101171142WAug 22 · 23:00P. Picek1.80111111113J. Steffan1.91138461LAug 22 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk1.73119311113P. Picek2.0091111352WAug 21 · 03:28M. Stefek1.916670P. Picek1.801111113
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