TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470539
Played Aug 22Finished
Petr Picek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113118114116––
Jan Steffan
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Steffan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Picek above · Jan Steffan below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 75 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Jan Steffan at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Petr Picek 41–34 Jan Steffan Jan Steffan has won 34 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:56What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-34 in 75
Picek
Correct
gap of 7 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Picek 1480 vs Steffan 1464
Picek
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Picek 40% vs Steffan 60%
Steffan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Picek 60% vs Steffan 40%
Picek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Picek -1 · Steffan +3
Steffan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Picek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPicek 1.80 / Steffan 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Picek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470539
Picek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 82 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it91% 40 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it82% 62 of 76
Steffan1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 87 of 231
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 124
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePicek7wins
AwaySteffan3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePicek85.7%6 of 7
AwaySteffan66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Picek7Steffan3n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S2Picek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S3Picek5Steffan5n = 10split evenly
S4Picek5Steffan4n = 9Picek took 5 of 9
S5Picek4Steffan2n = 6Picek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPicekSteffanP − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.339.9+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPicekSteffanBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 570 vs 464 / 96850.2%47.9%286 / 570 vs 464 / 968Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekPicek 1.80/Steffan 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 2 · 23:30P. Picek—111168113J. Steffan—78111162
LAug 1 · 22:00P. Picek—11118682J. Steffan—381111113
LJul 26 · 23:30P. Picek—11714101J. Steffan—131112123
WJul 24 · 02:00P. Picek—11101111113J. Steffan—13123992
WJul 17 · 02:58P. Picek—11118113J. Steffan—791181
WJul 17 · 02:30P. Picek—1311113J. Steffan—11570
WMay 25 · 24:30P. Picek—127911113J. Steffan—101111992
WMay 20 · 03:00P. Picek—117119113J. Steffan—41141112
LMay 20 · 01:30P. Picek—88111142J. Steffan—111197113
WMay 18 · 24:30P. Picek—11116113J. Steffan—931171
P. Picek10
LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102LSep 1 · 02:00P. Picek2.10211571K. Darin1.6711711113WSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WSep 1 · 24:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57711119112P. Picek2.25119611133WAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan1.9161191192P. Picek1.80118116113LAug 23 · 03:00P. Picek3.508740O. Kucirek1.281111113LAug 23 · 02:00O. Kucirek1.2811511113P. Picek3.50511841WAug 23 · 24:30P. Picek1.83127113113M. Smrcek1.83101171142LAug 22 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk1.73119311113P. Picek2.0091111352WAug 21 · 03:28M. Stefek1.916670P. Picek1.801111113
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113LAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan1.9161191192P. Picek1.80118116113
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