TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13046800
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611118911116911
Petr Picek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Petr Picek at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 34–41 Petr Picek Jan Steffan has won 34 of their 75 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:57What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Picek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-41 in 75
Picek
Correct
gap of 7 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1493 vs Picek 1490
Steffan
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 80% vs Picek 60%
Steffan
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 60% vs Picek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan +1 · Picek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Picek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Steffan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 1.91 / Picek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Picek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13046800
Steffan1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 90 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back16% 20 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 73
Picek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 82 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it91% 39 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it82% 62 of 76
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan3wins
AwayPicek7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan66.7%2 of 3
AwayPicek85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan3Picek7n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S2Steffan5Picek5n = 10split evenly
S3Steffan5Picek5n = 10split evenly
S4Steffan4Picek5n = 9Picek took 5 of 9
S5Steffan2Picek4n = 6Picek took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanPicekS − PBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.944.3−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 961 vs 278 / 55348.3%50.3%464 / 961 vs 278 / 553Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekSteffan 1.91/Picek 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 2 · 23:30J. Steffan—78111162P. Picek—111168113
WAug 1 · 22:00J. Steffan—381111113P. Picek—11118682
WJul 26 · 23:30J. Steffan—131112123P. Picek—11714101
LJul 24 · 02:00J. Steffan—13123992P. Picek—11101111113
LJul 17 · 02:58J. Steffan—791181P. Picek—11118113
LJul 17 · 02:30J. Steffan—11570P. Picek—1311113
LMay 25 · 24:30J. Steffan—101111992P. Picek—127911113
LMay 20 · 03:00J. Steffan—41141112P. Picek—117119113
WMay 20 · 01:30J. Steffan—111197113P. Picek—88111142
LMay 18 · 24:30J. Steffan—931171P. Picek—11116113
J. Steffan10
LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180LSep 5 · 01:00K. Darin1.671112113J. Steffan2.1081040WSep 4 · 23:30J. Steffan3.4011118123D. Horak1.308511101LSep 4 · 22:00J. Steffan1.8011115632R. Bartunek1.91491111113WSep 4 · 13:00L. Malek2.251181021J. Steffan1.5791112113
P. Picek10
LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102LSep 1 · 02:00P. Picek2.10211571K. Darin1.6711711113WSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WSep 1 · 24:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57711119112P. Picek2.25119611133LAug 23 · 03:00P. Picek3.508740O. Kucirek1.281111113LAug 23 · 02:00O. Kucirek1.2811511113P. Picek3.50511841WAug 23 · 24:30P. Picek1.83127113113M. Smrcek1.83101171142WAug 22 · 23:00P. Picek1.80111111113J. Steffan1.91138461LAug 22 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk1.73119311113P. Picek2.0091111352WAug 21 · 03:28M. Stefek1.916670P. Picek1.801111113
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