TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470486
Played Aug 23Finished
Petr Picek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210711117311114
Milan Smrcek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePetr Picek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Picek above · Milan Smrcek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 87 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Petr Picek at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Petr Picek 25–20 Milan Smrcek Milan Smrcek has won 20 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:55What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Smrcek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-20 in 45
Picek
Correct
gap of 5 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Picek 1492 vs Smrcek 1474
Picek
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Picek 40% vs Smrcek 60%
Smrcek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Picek 70% vs Smrcek 40%
Picek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Picek +1 · Smrcek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Picek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPicek 1.83 / Smrcek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Picek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #12470486
Picek1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Smrcek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePicek6wins
AwaySmrcek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPicek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePicek71.4%5 of 7
AwaySmrcek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Picek7Smrcek3n = 10Picek took 7 of 10
S2Picek5Smrcek5n = 10split evenly
S3Picek6Smrcek4n = 10Picek took 6 of 10
S4Picek3Smrcek3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPicekSmrcekP − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.433.9+1.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPicekSmrcekBasisWin rate · lifetime287 / 571 vs 249 / 50550.3%49.3%287 / 571 vs 249 / 505Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PicekPicek 1.83/Smrcek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Picek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Picek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 21 · 01:30P. Picek—11219113M. Smrcek—5111791
LMay 24 · 23:30P. Picek—6111341M. Smrcek—11615113
LApr 30 · 03:29P. Picek—1110491M. Smrcek—81211113
WApr 30 · 02:30P. Picek—116116113M. Smrcek—71171172
WApr 20 · 01:00P. Picek—71211113M. Smrcek—1110461
LApr 10 · 03:30P. Picek—116111152M. Smrcek—811132113
WApr 9 · 23:00P. Picek—1111113M. Smrcek—9170
LApr 5 · 01:00P. Picek—3650M. Smrcek—1111113
WMar 26 · 01:30P. Picek—1111113M. Smrcek—9990
WMar 23 · 01:30P. Picek—1111113M. Smrcek—7450
P. Picek10
LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102LSep 1 · 02:00P. Picek2.10211571K. Darin1.6711711113WSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WSep 1 · 24:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57711119112P. Picek2.25119611133WAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan1.9161191192P. Picek1.80118116113LAug 23 · 03:00P. Picek3.508740O. Kucirek1.281111113LAug 23 · 02:00O. Kucirek1.2811511113P. Picek3.50511841WAug 22 · 23:00P. Picek1.80111111113J. Steffan1.91138461LAug 22 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk1.73119311113P. Picek2.0091111352WAug 21 · 03:28M. Stefek1.916670P. Picek1.801111113
M. Smrcek10
WAug 26 · 21:00K. Darin1.44311771M. Smrcek2.6311411113LAug 26 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk1.4011611113M. Smrcek2.75711841LAug 26 · 19:30M. Smrcek1.80136991T. Kolenic1.91111111113LAug 26 · 18:30K. Darin1.5011113113M. Smrcek2.50791191LAug 26 · 09:06K. Darin1.80312811113M. Smrcek1.85111011362WAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113LAug 26 · 07:30M. Smrcek1.6711711452J. Steffan2.10311611113LAug 26 · 06:30K. Darin1.5361111113M. Smrcek2.38114671LAug 24 · 02:30M. Smrcek1.44119371R. Bartunek2.6381111113LAug 24 · 01:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511119143M. Smrcek1.339511121
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