TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #12470509
Played Aug 23Finished
Ondrej Kucirek
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115511118114––
Petr Picek
Away
3.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:54 and never touched — 77.1% is still 77.1%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kucirek to win
77.1%
77.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kucirek above · Petr Picek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Ondrej Kucirek at 77.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kucirek 34–14 Petr Picek Petr Picek has won 14 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:54What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Kucirek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-14 in 48
Kucirek
Correct
gap of 20 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kucirek 1491 vs Picek 1502
Picek
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kucirek 40% vs Picek 60%
Picek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kucirek 40% vs Picek 70%
Picek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kucirek -2 · Picek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kucirek) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Picek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKucirek 1.28 / Picek 3.50
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Kucirek)-1.5pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #12470509
Kucirek1.28
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 55 of 95
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it87% 32 of 37
Picek3.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 28 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back17% 10 of 59
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKucirek9wins
AwayPicek1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKucirek leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKucirek100%7 of 7
AwayPicek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kucirek7Picek3n = 10Kucirek took 7 of 10
S2Kucirek9Picek1n = 10Kucirek took 9 of 10
S3Kucirek7Picek3n = 10Kucirek took 7 of 10
S4Kucirek3Picek1n = 4Kucirek took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKucirekPicekK − PBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.826.7+9.1per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKucirekPicekBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 431 vs 288 / 57249.4%50.4%213 / 431 vs 288 / 572Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KucirekKucirek 1.28/Picek 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Kucirek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kucirek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 03:28O. Kucirek—1111113P. Picek—9960
WJul 23 · 22:30O. Kucirek—1111113P. Picek—6620
WJul 13 · 22:30O. Kucirek—1111113P. Picek—9740
WJul 9 · 02:59O. Kucirek—1111113P. Picek—7940
WJul 8 · 22:30O. Kucirek—71112113P. Picek—1181041
LMar 26 · 24:30O. Kucirek—5990P. Picek—1111113
WMar 21 · 03:30O. Kucirek—11118113P. Picek—661121
WMar 19 · 02:30O. Kucirek—1111113P. Picek—8260
WMar 13 · 24:00O. Kucirek—514126113P. Picek—1112101172
WFeb 26 · 02:30O. Kucirek—12116113P. Picek—1051151
O. Kucirek10
WSep 5 · 03:28O. Kucirek1.361111113R. Urban3.009240WSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:00A. Svoboda1.83410100O. Kucirek1.831112123WSep 4 · 23:30O. Kucirek1.831111113M. Stefek1.837750WSep 4 · 22:00O. Kucirek1.331211511113R. Urban3.2514711352LSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:30V. Dolezal1.7311125752O. Kucirek2.006101111113WSep 2 · 19:30O. Kucirek2.2513111011113R. Bartunek1.5715912782LSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113
P. Picek10
LSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102LSep 1 · 02:00P. Picek2.10211571K. Darin1.6711711113WSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WSep 1 · 24:00Y. Holovatiuk1.57711119112P. Picek2.25119611133WAug 31 · 22:30J. Steffan1.9161191192P. Picek1.80118116113LAug 23 · 03:00P. Picek3.508740O. Kucirek1.281111113WAug 23 · 24:30P. Picek1.83127113113M. Smrcek1.83101171142WAug 22 · 23:00P. Picek1.80111111113J. Steffan1.91138461LAug 22 · 22:00Y. Holovatiuk1.73119311113P. Picek2.0091111352WAug 21 · 03:28M. Stefek1.916670P. Picek1.801111113
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