TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13046703
Played Aug 31Finished
Jan Varcl Jnr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119119711118––
Kyryl Darin
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:18 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJan Varcl Jnr to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Varcl Jnr above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 77 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Varcl Jnr at 56.5%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Varcl Jnr 17–13 Kyryl Darin Kyryl Darin has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Darin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-13 in 30
Jnr
Correct
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1513 vs Darin 1417
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Darin 40%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 70% vs Darin 50%
Jnr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +1 · Darin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Darin) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.00 / Darin 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Darin)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13046703
Jnr2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 18 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Darin1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 161 of 280
Up 2–0, closes it95% 82 of 86
Up 1–0, closes it76% 111 of 146
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr5wins
AwayDarin5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr66.7%2 of 3
AwayDarin57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr3Darin7n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S2Jnr3Darin7n = 10Darin took 7 of 10
S3Jnr6Darin4n = 10Jnr took 6 of 10
S4Jnr3Darin5n = 8Darin took 5 of 8
S5Jnr3Darin0n = 3Jnr took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrDarinJ − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.642.6−4.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 225 vs 752 / 153551.6%49%116 / 225 vs 752 / 1535Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DarinJnr 2.00/Darin 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 07:00J. Jnr—14512143K. Darin—121110121
LAug 18 · 21:00J. Jnr—9570K. Darin—1111113
LAug 18 · 18:00J. Jnr—1016661K. Darin—121411113
WJul 2 · 02:00J. Jnr—111111133K. Darin—9137111
LApr 29 · 22:30J. Jnr—561181K. Darin—11118113
WApr 21 · 06:00J. Jnr—1091113113K. Darin—121191182
LFeb 19 · 10:28J. Jnr—119661K. Darin—81111113
WFeb 19 · 09:00J. Jnr—1111119113K. Darin—13691182
WFeb 17 · 08:30J. Jnr—1011136113K. Darin—127111162
LFeb 3 · 23:00J. Jnr—8440K. Darin—1111113
J. Jnr10
LSep 3 · 02:00J. Jnr1.911111581K. Darin1.8071311113LSep 3 · 01:00J. Jnr2.2081181242D. Parhomenko1.611151110113LSep 3 · 24:00P. Fojt1.61811711113J. Jnr2.2011811932LSep 2 · 22:30A. Mikuska1.361111113J. Jnr3.005960WSep 1 · 03:30J. Jnr1.70791111123P. Picek2.02111165102WSep 1 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.10811116142J. Jnr1.67116411163LSep 1 · 01:00P. Picek1.8011113113J. Jnr1.91371161WAug 31 · 23:30J. Jnr1.617121110113J. Steffan2.20111071222WAug 26 · 09:29J. Jnr1.731112113J. Steffan2.0081090LAug 26 · 08:30J. Jnr1.9151151392M. Smrcek1.801141111113
K. Darin10
WSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671WSep 7 · 08:30K. Darin1.44121111113J. Didi2.63147991LSep 7 · 07:00K. Darin1.618690T. Andrle2.201111113LSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 13:01K. Darin1.80961171L. Malek1.9111115113LSep 6 · 12:00K. Darin1.801111511102F. Jungman1.91281113123WSep 6 · 11:30L. Malek2.009120K. Darin1.731111113LSep 6 · 10:00K. Darin1.6111841182F. Briza2.20911119113LSep 5 · 21:00Y. Holovatiuk1.738111011113K. Darin2.0011912472WSep 3 · 02:00J. Jnr1.911111581K. Darin1.8071311113
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