TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13096887
Played Sep 8Finished
Jan Steffan
Home
2.03
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1197111012111––
Kyryl Darin
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:00 and never touched — 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeKyryl Darin to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Steffan above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 1-11
Point 72 set 4, 1-11 — our read held Kyryl Darin at 54.6%
72 points played in total.
H2H Jan Steffan 33–75 Kyryl Darin Jan Steffan has won 33 of their 108 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Darin beat Steffan 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:00What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (56%)
Darin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-75 in 108
Darin
Correct
gap of 42 in 108, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Steffan 1417 vs Darin 1421
Darin
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Steffan 60% vs Darin 80%
Darin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Steffan 40% vs Darin 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Steffan +3 · Darin +2
Steffan
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Darin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSteffan 2.03 / Darin 1.62
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Darin)-1.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13096887
Steffan2.03
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 93 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 126
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 72
Darin1.62
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 163 of 289
Up 2–0, closes it91% 83 of 91
Up 1–0, closes it74% 113 of 153
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSteffan3wins
AwayDarin7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDarin leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSteffan60%3 of 5
AwayDarin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Steffan5Darin5n = 10split evenly
S2Steffan6Darin4n = 10Steffan took 6 of 10
S3Steffan1Darin9n = 10Darin took 9 of 10
S4Steffan1Darin5n = 6Darin took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSteffanDarinS − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match32.338.0−5.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSteffanDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime465 / 971 vs 751 / 154947.9%48.5%465 / 971 vs 751 / 1549Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DarinSteffan 2.03/Darin 1.62
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Darin · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Darin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 08:00J. Steffan—111155113K. Darin—57111192
WAug 22 · 11:00J. Steffan—12118133K. Darin—10911111
LAug 19 · 18:00J. Steffan—611671K. Darin—11511113
LAug 17 · 21:30J. Steffan—812120K. Darin—1114143
LAug 17 · 18:00J. Steffan—11119552K. Darin—771111113
WAug 12 · 12:00J. Steffan—1111123K. Darin—88100
LJul 23 · 22:00J. Steffan—3970K. Darin—1111113
LJul 8 · 11:30J. Steffan—611651K. Darin—11511113
LMay 24 · 23:00J. Steffan—1111481K. Darin—71311113
LMay 23 · 03:30J. Steffan—8460K. Darin—1111113
J. Steffan10
WSep 8 · 02:00J. Steffan1.91911115113P. Picek1.8011951192WSep 8 · 01:00J. Steffan2.001111113O. Vitrovyj1.739760WSep 8 · 24:00M. Placek1.40811371J. Steffan2.7511411113LSep 7 · 22:30K. Darin1.61114811113J. Steffan2.2061111672LSep 6 · 16:59F. Jungman1.61811911113J. Steffan2.2011611862LSep 6 · 16:30J. Dedek1.4481111113J. Steffan2.63117661LSep 6 · 15:30J. Steffan2.38811461J. Trefny1.5311911113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Jungman1.731111115113J. Steffan2.0037131172WSep 5 · 02:58D. Horak1.407770J. Steffan2.751111113LSep 5 · 02:30Y. Holovatiuk2.251113113J. Steffan1.5761180
K. Darin10
LSep 8 · 21:30L. Krok1.8511611123K. Darin1.858115101WSep 8 · 20:30J. Jnr2.008131081K. Darin1.73111112113LSep 8 · 19:30K. Darin1.83119311102L. Krok1.83911119123WSep 8 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk1.7311913792K. Darin2.007111111113WSep 8 · 01:30K. Darin1.671111123M. Placek2.1064100WSep 8 · 24:30P. Picek2.0010570K. Darin1.731211113LSep 7 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511117123K. Darin1.338711101WSep 7 · 22:30K. Darin1.61114811113J. Steffan2.2061111672WSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671WSep 7 · 08:30K. Darin1.44121111113J. Didi2.63147991
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