TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13100897
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukas Krok
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1186111151210––
Kyryl Darin
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krok to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krok above · Kyryl Darin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Lukas Krok at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krok 35–28 Kyryl Darin Kyryl Darin has won 28 of their 63 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Krok beat Darin 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:07What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Darin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
35-28 in 63
Krok
Correct
gap of 7 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krok 1521 vs Darin 1466
Krok
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krok 80% vs Darin 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krok 60% vs Darin 80%
Darin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krok +2 · Darin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krok)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Darin form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrok 1.85 / Darin 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krok)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13100897
Krok1.85
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Darin1.85
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrok6wins
AwayDarin4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKrok leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrok80%4 of 5
AwayDarin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krok5Darin5n = 10split evenly
S2Krok4Darin6n = 10Darin took 6 of 10
S3Krok7Darin3n = 10Krok took 7 of 10
S4Krok3Darin5n = 8Darin took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrokDarinK − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.336.5+2.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrokDarinBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 372 vs 753 / 155246.5%48.5%173 / 372 vs 753 / 1552Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrokKrok 1.85/Darin 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krok · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krok won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 18:00L. Krok—911551K. Darin—11711113
WAug 21 · 18:00L. Krok—1191212113K. Darin—911101442
LAug 19 · 20:00L. Krok—671181K. Darin—11119113
WAug 18 · 20:00L. Krok—119118113K. Darin—31181132
WAug 16 · 21:30L. Krok—121111133K. Darin—1455111
WAug 16 · 20:00L. Krok—111012113K. Darin—9121051
WAug 11 · 18:00L. Krok—1111113K. Darin—6940
LAug 5 · 21:30L. Krok—10430K. Darin—1211113
WAug 5 · 20:30L. Krok—81111113K. Darin—114751
LJul 7 · 18:00L. Krok—11912121K. Darin—91114143
L. Krok10
WSep 8 · 20:00L. Krok1.571111113Y. Holovatiuk2.255570WSep 8 · 19:30K. Darin1.83119311102L. Krok1.83911119123LSep 8 · 18:00L. Krok1.4411771382J. Jnr2.634111111113WSep 5 · 21:30J. Plachy1.684780L. Krok2.051111113WSep 5 · 20:00L. Krok1.611411113Y. Holovatiuk2.2012460WSep 5 · 19:30J. Plachy1.7397111692L. Krok2.001111814113LSep 5 · 18:00L. Krok1.83911551K. Darin1.8311711113WAug 22 · 21:05V. Nohejl1.619311101L. Krok2.2011116123LAug 22 · 20:00L. Krok2.25116741T. Kolenic1.5781111113LAug 22 · 19:30V. Nohejl2.001111113L. Krok1.735760
K. Darin10
WSep 8 · 20:30J. Jnr2.008131081K. Darin1.73111112113LSep 8 · 19:30K. Darin1.83119311102L. Krok1.83911119123WSep 8 · 18:30Y. Holovatiuk1.7311913792K. Darin2.007111111113WSep 8 · 03:30J. Steffan2.031171011K. Darin1.6291112113WSep 8 · 01:30K. Darin1.671111123M. Placek2.1064100WSep 8 · 24:30P. Picek2.0010570K. Darin1.731211113LSep 7 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj3.2511117123K. Darin1.338711101WSep 7 · 22:30K. Darin1.61114811113J. Steffan2.2061111672WSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671WSep 5 · 18:00L. Krok1.83911551K. Darin1.8311711113
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