TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104688
Played Sep 10Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111191155111311
Adam Svoboda
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:39 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeAdam Svoboda to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Adam Svoboda below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 95 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Adam Svoboda at 59.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 5–10 Adam Svoboda Vaclav Dolezal has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 2h before this match
Svoboda beat Dolezal 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:39What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Svoboda
Wrong
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1410 vs Svoboda 1587
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 40% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 50% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal -2 · Svoboda +4
Svoboda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.50 / Svoboda 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Svoboda)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104688
Dolezal2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog33% won 41 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Svoboda1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite62% won 60 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it95% 35 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it91% 42 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDolezal3wins
AwaySvoboda7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezal60%3 of 5
AwaySvoboda100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal5Svoboda5n = 10split evenly
S2Dolezal5Svoboda5n = 10split evenly
S3Dolezal8Svoboda2n = 10Dolezal took 8 of 10
S4Dolezal1Svoboda7n = 8Svoboda took 7 of 8
S5Dolezal1Svoboda4n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDolezalSvobodaD − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.1−2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 765 vs 153 / 29149.2%52.6%376 / 765 vs 153 / 291Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaDolezal 2.50/Svoboda 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal—981661A. Svoboda—111114113
LSep 5 · 02:58V. Dolezal—11611862A. Svoboda—711511113
LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal—911861A. Svoboda—11611113
LSep 4 · 18:30V. Dolezal—1151611102A. Svoboda—9111413123
LAug 23 · 13:00V. Dolezal—81111452A. Svoboda—115811113
WAug 23 · 10:00V. Dolezal—1111113A. Svoboda—5480
LAug 23 · 09:30V. Dolezal—85111392A. Svoboda—1111711113
WAug 23 · 06:30V. Dolezal—117115113A. Svoboda—71181192
WAug 22 · 12:30V. Dolezal—1113123A. Svoboda—711100
LMay 16 · 03:29V. Dolezal—712861A. Svoboda—111011113
V. Dolezal10
WSep 10 · 10:30M. Stefek2.255930V. Dolezal1.571111113LSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113LSep 10 · 08:30L. Sulava2.631111113V. Dolezal1.441940WSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal1.6111118113M. Stefek2.20791171WSep 10 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.5010550V. Dolezal2.501211113LSep 9 · 09:28J. Pleskot2.75111265113V. Dolezal1.40910111192WSep 9 · 08:30V. Dolezal1.331117155113J. Pleskot3.25519131192WSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102LSep 9 · 06:00J. Didi2.381111113V. Dolezal1.539690WSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113
A. Svoboda10
LSep 10 · 12:00A. Svoboda1.5310101111102M. Stefek2.38121267123WSep 10 · 10:00A. Svoboda1.301111113R. Hasmanda3.408680WSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113WSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.383930A. Svoboda1.531111113WSep 10 · 07:00L. Sulava3.70612111162A. Svoboda1.19111477113LSep 10 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.5010550V. Dolezal2.501211113WSep 9 · 03:30A. Svoboda1.551111113V. Kosar2.308570WSep 9 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.441111123R. Hasmanda2.6396100WSep 9 · 01:30L. Sulava3.403780A. Svoboda1.301111113WSep 9 · 24:00A. Svoboda1.401111113M. Novak2.757730
Upcoming Matches
V. Dolezal
Nothing scheduled
A. Svoboda1 of 2 neutral
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