TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104090
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911311––––
Vaclav Dolezal
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:58 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeVaclav Dolezal to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Vaclav Dolezal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Point 50 set 3, 3-11 — our read held Vaclav Dolezal at 59.3%
50 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 18–35 Vaclav Dolezal Martin Stefek has won 18 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-35 in 53
Dolezal
Correct
gap of 17 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1411 vs Dolezal 1410
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Dolezal 40%
Stefek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 70% vs Dolezal 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +1 · Dolezal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dolezal form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 2.25 / Dolezal 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Dolezal)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104090
Stefek2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 191 of 438
Down 0–1, comes back23% 56 of 243
Down 0–2, comes back8% 11 of 146
Dolezal1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 140 of 216
Up 2–0, closes it94% 68 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it80% 102 of 127
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwayDolezal6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDolezal leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek50%4 of 8
AwayDolezaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek8Dolezal2n = 10Stefek took 8 of 10
S2Stefek2Dolezal8n = 10Dolezal took 8 of 10
S3Stefek5Dolezal5n = 10split evenly
S4Stefek3Dolezal6n = 9Dolezal took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekDolezalS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.541.4−2.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekDolezalBasisWin rate · lifetime577 / 1207 vs 376 / 76547.8%49.2%577 / 1207 vs 376 / 765Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalStefek 2.25/Dolezal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 07:00M. Stefek—116117102V. Dolezal—411811123
LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek—471191V. Dolezal—11117113
WSep 8 · 02:00M. Stefek—111111123V. Dolezal—4913101
LSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek—115681V. Dolezal—91111113
WSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek—1191011123V. Dolezal—911129102
LAug 31 · 02:30M. Stefek—1181571V. Dolezal—91117113
LAug 28 · 03:28M. Stefek—116761V. Dolezal—71111113
LAug 28 · 01:30M. Stefek—571151V. Dolezal—11118113
WAug 24 · 17:30M. Stefek—121014113V. Dolezal—10121271
WAug 24 · 14:30M. Stefek—1113113V. Dolezal—91190
M. Stefek10
WSep 10 · 11:00R. Hasmanda1.911081181M. Stefek1.8012116113WSep 10 · 09:00L. Sulava1.8011861142M. Stefek1.91511115113LSep 10 · 08:00M. Stefek2.383930A. Svoboda1.531111113LSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal1.6111118113M. Stefek2.20791171WSep 10 · 06:00M. Stefek1.809111112113L. Sulava1.9111691492WSep 9 · 17:28J. Didi1.6161141192M. Stefek2.20118117113WSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner1.671491281M. Stefek2.10121114113LSep 9 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83511561J. Didi1.8311611113WSep 9 · 14:30J. Steffan1.37791191M. Stefek2.6011119113WSep 9 · 09:04M. Stefek1.73613311123J. Didi2.001111116102
V. Dolezal10
WSep 10 · 11:30V. Dolezal2.50811115133A. Svoboda1.50119511112LSep 10 · 09:30V. Dolezal1.91981661A. Svoboda1.80111114113LSep 10 · 08:30L. Sulava2.631111113V. Dolezal1.441940WSep 10 · 07:30V. Dolezal1.6111118113M. Stefek2.20791171WSep 10 · 06:30A. Svoboda1.5010550V. Dolezal2.501211113LSep 9 · 09:28J. Pleskot2.75111265113V. Dolezal1.40910111192WSep 9 · 08:30V. Dolezal1.331117155113J. Pleskot3.25519131192WSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102LSep 9 · 06:00J. Didi2.381111113V. Dolezal1.539690WSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113
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