TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13103240
Played Sep 10Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111161191214119
Lubor Sulava
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Lubor Sulava below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 103 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Martin Stefek at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 11–16 Lubor Sulava Martin Stefek has won 11 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:27What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-16 in 27
Sulava
Wrong
gap of 5 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1408 vs Sulava 1411
Sulava
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Sulava 20%
Stefek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 60% vs Sulava 30%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +2 · Sulava -4
Sulava
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulava form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.80 / Sulava 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stefek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13103240
Stefek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 121 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it92% 67 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it75% 88 of 118
Sulava1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 62 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek7wins
AwaySulava3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStefek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek83.3%5 of 6
AwaySulava50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek6Sulava4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S2Stefek6Sulava4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S3Stefek6Sulava4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S4Stefek6Sulava3n = 9Stefek took 6 of 9
S5Stefek2Sulava2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekSulavaStefek − SulavaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.139.1+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekSulavaBasisWin rate · lifetime576 / 1205 vs 479 / 96747.8%49.5%576 / 1205 vs 479 / 967Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.80/Sulava 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 06:00M. Stefek—9111112113L. Sulava—11691492
LSep 6 · 11:30M. Stefek—104111172L. Sulava—121168113
WAug 28 · 24:00M. Stefek—1311133L. Sulava—119110
WAug 3 · 02:00M. Stefek—111185113L. Sulava—78111192
LJun 7 · 10:00M. Stefek—13661332L. Sulava—11111111113
WMay 5 · 02:30M. Stefek—21111113L. Sulava—112481
WMar 26 · 03:30M. Stefek—11115113L. Sulava—981171
WMar 12 · 01:00M. Stefek—11911113L. Sulava—411861
WFeb 28 · 10:30M. Stefek—11511113L. Sulava—711991
LFeb 28 · 07:30M. Stefek—511651L. Sulava—11411113
M. Stefek10
WSep 9 · 17:28J. Didi1.6161141192M. Stefek2.20118117113WSep 9 · 16:30T. Regner1.671491281M. Stefek2.10121114113LSep 9 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83511561J. Didi1.8311611113WSep 9 · 14:30J. Steffan1.37791191M. Stefek2.6011119113WSep 9 · 09:04M. Stefek1.73613311123J. Didi2.001111116102WSep 9 · 08:00J. Didi1.619911101M. Stefek2.2011118123LSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102LSep 9 · 06:30M. Stefek1.83811101172J. Pleskot1.83119129113LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113WSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.614913101M. Stefek2.20111111123
L. Sulava10
LSep 10 · 07:00L. Sulava3.70612111162A. Svoboda1.19111477113LSep 9 · 01:30L. Sulava3.403780A. Svoboda1.301111113LSep 9 · 24:30V. Kosar2.00941111113L. Sulava1.7311113242LSep 8 · 23:30R. Hasmanda1.3621211113L. Sulava3.001110781LSep 8 · 22:30L. Sulava2.0010640M. Novak1.731211113WSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961WSep 7 · 02:00P. Bruzek1.9198111252L. Sulava1.801111610113WSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113LSep 6 · 22:00R. Hasmanda1.441211113L. Sulava2.6310580
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