TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13099006
Played Sep 9Finished
Tomas Regner
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
14129111214811––
Martin Stefek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Regner above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 91 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tomas Regner at 56.2%
91 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Regner 21–20 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 20 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:05What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-20 in 41
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1410 vs Stefek 1360
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 30% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Stefek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Regner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.67 / Stefek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Regner)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13099006
Regner1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 101 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it73% 69 of 95
Stefek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 187 of 437
Down 0–1, comes back22% 55 of 246
Down 0–2, comes back7% 11 of 149
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner5wins
AwayStefek5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner60%3 of 5
AwayStefek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S2Regner5Stefek5n = 10split evenly
S3Regner6Stefek4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S4Regner3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S5Regner3Stefek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerStefekR − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.436.3+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime483 / 975 vs 573 / 120249.5%47.7%483 / 975 vs 573 / 1202Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.67/Stefek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 24:30T. Regner—1110115102M. Stefek—312111123
WAug 30 · 20:00T. Regner—1111113M. Stefek—7550
LAug 28 · 02:30T. Regner—71181152M. Stefek—118118113
LAug 25 · 22:00T. Regner—8450M. Stefek—1111113
LAug 24 · 16:00T. Regner—11116482M. Stefek—911111113
WAug 23 · 13:30T. Regner—1111113M. Stefek—5580
WAug 23 · 10:30T. Regner—811118113M. Stefek—11651162
LAug 23 · 09:00T. Regner—341171M. Stefek—11115113
WAug 23 · 06:00T. Regner—1261111113M. Stefek—101113842
WAug 20 · 20:58T. Regner—591111113M. Stefek—11116582
T. Regner10
WSep 9 · 15:00T. Regner2.131212211113J. Steffan1.56141011692LSep 9 · 14:00J. Didi1.571111113T. Regner2.257930WSep 8 · 20:58T. Regner1.5011811113M. Fisera2.50211391LSep 8 · 20:30T. Regner2.389650A. Svoboda1.531111113LSep 8 · 19:00T. Regner2.005590O. Fejtek1.731111113WSep 8 · 18:00M. Fisera2.25101070T. Regner1.571212113LSep 8 · 01:30T. Regner2.3821111952R. Bartunek1.53116511113LSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102LSep 7 · 23:30J. Framberk2.0011118143T. Regner1.739811121LSep 7 · 22:30T. Regner2.385490V. Dolezal1.531111113
M. Stefek10
LSep 9 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83511561J. Didi1.8311611113WSep 9 · 14:30J. Steffan1.37791191M. Stefek2.6011119113WSep 9 · 09:04M. Stefek1.73613311123J. Didi2.001111116102WSep 9 · 08:00J. Didi1.619911101M. Stefek2.2011118123LSep 9 · 07:00V. Dolezal1.61411811123M. Stefek2.20116117102LSep 9 · 06:30M. Stefek1.83811101172J. Pleskot1.83119129113LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113WSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.614913101M. Stefek2.20111111123WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek1.91111166113R. Bartunek1.8096111162
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