TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13092935
Played Sep 8Finished
Milan Fisera
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
10121012711––––
Tomas Regner
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:40 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeTomas Regner to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Fisera above · Tomas Regner below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 62 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Regner at 63.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Milan Fisera 3–6 Tomas Regner Milan Fisera has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:40What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Regner
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fisera 1555 vs Regner 1399
Fisera
Wrong
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fisera 100% vs Regner 0%
Fisera
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fisera 70% vs Regner 20%
Fisera
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fisera +5 · Regner -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (0%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFisera 2.25 / Regner 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Regner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13092935
Fisera2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 19 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 33
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Regner1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 99 of 165
Up 2–0, closes it89% 40 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it72% 67 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeFisera3wins
AwayRegner6wins
1 of 9 to a deciderRegner leads 6–3, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFisera75%3 of 4
AwayRegner100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fisera4Regner5n = 9Regner took 5 of 9
S2Fisera4Regner5n = 9Regner took 5 of 9
S3Fisera2Regner7n = 9Regner took 7 of 9
S4Fisera3Regner2n = 5Fisera took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricFiseraRegnerF − RBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set45−1of 9Avg pointsper match32.336.2−3.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFiseraRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 351 vs 480 / 96947.6%49.5%167 / 351 vs 480 / 969Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerFisera 2.25/Regner 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 8 · 21:30M. Fisera—135251T. Regner—111111113
LAug 8 · 18:30M. Fisera—1191181T. Regner—13117113
LMar 29 · 16:30M. Fisera—91160T. Regner—1113113
LMar 12 · 13:00M. Fisera—2820T. Regner—1111113
LMar 9 · 16:30M. Fisera—81161192T. Regner—119116113
WApr 13 · 15:30M. Fisera—1111113T. Regner—4470
WApr 2 · 19:30M. Fisera—11139113T. Regner—7111181
WMar 17 · 21:00M. Fisera—11119113T. Regner—791191
LMar 13 · 12:30M. Fisera—51280T. Regner—1114113
M. Fisera10
LSep 8 · 19:30A. Svoboda1.5391M. Fisera2.3880WSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:00R. Bartunek2.631111581M. Fisera1.4413811113WSep 2 · 19:00V. Dolezal2.63311971M. Fisera1.4411711113WSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WAug 10 · 21:00M. Fisera1.471111113R. Bartunek2.509560LAug 10 · 20:00J. Didi2.201110118113M. Fisera1.6151271182LAug 10 · 19:00M. Stefek3.25111658113M. Fisera1.33414111162WAug 10 · 18:30M. Fisera1.731111113R. Bartunek2.008370LAug 8 · 21:30T. Regner1.52111111113M. Fisera2.35135251
T. Regner10
LSep 8 · 19:00T. Regner2.005590O. Fejtek1.731111113LSep 8 · 01:30T. Regner2.3821111952R. Bartunek1.53116511113LSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102LSep 7 · 23:30J. Framberk2.0011118143T. Regner1.739811121LSep 7 · 22:30T. Regner2.385490V. Dolezal1.531111113LSep 1 · 02:59T. Regner2.257230O. Kucirek1.571111113LSep 1 · 01:30T. Regner2.008560R. Bartunek1.731111113LSep 1 · 24:30O. Kucirek1.7311811113T. Regner2.00511651WAug 31 · 23:30O. Vitrovyj1.734880T. Regner2.001111113WAug 8 · 21:30T. Regner1.52111111113M. Fisera2.35135251
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