TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13060026
Played Sep 2Finished
Vaclav Dolezal
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311117911711––
Milan Fisera
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:23 and never touched — 63.9% is still 63.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Fisera to win
63.9%
63.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVaclav Dolezal above · Milan Fisera below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 70 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Milan Fisera at 63.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Vaclav Dolezal 1–4 Milan Fisera Vaclav Dolezal has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:23What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fisera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Fisera
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1515 vs Fisera 1504
Dolezal
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 80% vs Fisera 40%
Dolezal
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 70% vs Fisera 40%
Dolezal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal +4 · Fisera +1
Dolezal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Fisera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fisera form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 2.63 / Fisera 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Fisera)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13060026
Dolezal2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 47 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 47
Fisera1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 46 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeDolezal1wins
AwayFisera4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderFisera leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDolezaln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFisera100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dolezal2Fisera3n = 5Fisera took 3 of 5
S2Dolezal1Fisera4n = 5Fisera took 4 of 5
S3Dolezal3Fisera2n = 5Dolezal took 3 of 5
S4Dolezal1Fisera2n = 3Fisera took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricDolezalFiseraD − FBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match31.637.4−5.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalFiseraBasisWin rate · lifetime365 / 738 vs 164 / 34849.5%47.1%365 / 738 vs 164 / 348Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FiseraDolezal 2.63/Fisera 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Fisera · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fisera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LMay 12 · 13:28V. Dolezal—791381M. Fisera—111111113
LMay 12 · 12:00V. Dolezal—116721M. Fisera—61111113
WMay 6 · 15:00V. Dolezal—1211113M. Fisera—10750
LMar 17 · 12:30V. Dolezal—611111152M. Fisera—111377113
LAug 12 · 12:00V. Dolezal—4670M. Fisera—1111113
V. Dolezal10
LSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862LSep 5 · 02:30V. Dolezal1.731291171O. Kucirek2.0014113113WSep 5 · 01:30M. Stefek2.00115681V. Dolezal1.7391111113LSep 5 · 24:00V. Dolezal2.00911861A. Svoboda1.7311611113LSep 4 · 23:00R. Urban1.83912118113V. Dolezal1.83111061172WSep 4 · 20:59J. Didi2.109850V. Dolezal1.671111113LSep 4 · 20:30M. Stefek2.201191011123V. Dolezal1.61911129102LSep 4 · 19:30V. Dolezal1.5371114882J. Didi2.381141211113LSep 4 · 18:30A. Svoboda1.839111413123V. Dolezal1.831151611102WSep 3 · 03:04V. Dolezal1.2011139113J. Didi4.335111151
M. Fisera10
WSep 2 · 21:28M. Fisera1.73119118113O. Kucirek2.0081171182WSep 2 · 20:00R. Bartunek2.631111581M. Fisera1.4413811113WSep 2 · 18:30M. Fisera1.831111129113O. Kucirek1.8374141112WAug 10 · 21:00M. Fisera1.471111113R. Bartunek2.509560LAug 10 · 20:00J. Didi2.201110118113M. Fisera1.6151271182LAug 10 · 19:00M. Stefek3.25111658113M. Fisera1.33414111162WAug 10 · 18:30M. Fisera1.731111113R. Bartunek2.008370LAug 8 · 21:30T. Regner1.52111111113M. Fisera2.35135251WAug 8 · 20:00M. Stefek3.001110861M. Fisera1.3691211113WAug 8 · 19:00J. Didi2.10119461M. Fisera1.6761111113
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